I've been very busy at work, it's audit season, so no spare time. But this weekend is down-time to rest. So I've just had a look at the Arctic Ocean sea ice data for September 2007 to 2022.
Saturday 29 October 2022
Monday 19 September 2022
I've just been watching the Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, my impressions are similar to those of the wedding of Prince Phillip. At that time I was watching that prior event with someone and was asked what I thought of it. I said thought it was quite a primitive event, being a display of ape hierarchy and a liminal ceremony, a right of passage. For all the trappings this funeral struck me similarly, which is not to say it was not emotionally moving.
Thursday 8 September 2022
There are around 1.5 trillion metric tons of carbon locked in the land permafrost of the Arctic Circle region. To put that into perspective, human fossil fuel emissions are around 34 billion metric tons per year of CO2 (9.3 billion metric tons of carbon), which means that there are about 160 years worth of emissions in carbon locked up in the permafrost of the Arctic region.
Sunday 4 September 2022
I'll have something to say about the Central England Temperature series and this year's summer, and when the minimum is finally reached, Arctic sea-ice. But the following video is an excellent review and extrapolation of a perfect movie, The Death of Stalin.
Monday 29 August 2022
Taking a short-hand of left and right as being collectivist and individualist is an approximation that looses some finesse. But let's just consider the collectivist/individualist dichotomy aspects of left and right and proceed to show how they're simultaneously correct and incorrect.
Monday 22 August 2022
Thursday 18 August 2022
China gave us the "Wuhan Flu", which for purposes of irritating the Woke Totalitarians must be said in a certain fashion with the requisite facial distortions and terrible hammy accent. Really. It must. It is essential to have some fun in life. Everyone gets mocked.
Sunday 14 August 2022
Friday 5 August 2022
In my last post I made a throw away comment in relation to the subject of climate change: "...nothing exposes right-wing ideological capture more than the subject of climate change, it's their version of the gender ideology clown-world occupied by the left." This ideological capture is most commonly known via the non-playable character (NPC) meme.
Thursday 21 July 2022
We have had some really weird hot weather here (UK), and I've been looking at the Central England Temperature Series (CET). This is an event that is but a small part of a massive heatwave impacting Europe...
Friday 15 July 2022
The UK Government is in turmoil following the defenestration of Boris Johnson. He was finally driven to resign the leadership of the Conservative Party after some 49 ministers and permanent secretaries resigned over a period of a few days. That was the culmination of months of the entire party guiding him to the door, some people just cannot take a hint.
After a catalogue of episodes of bad judgement Johnson's time was up. Now the race to replace him is on.
Sunday 10 July 2022
Here in the UK, 5GHz link bands are being used for point-to-point back-haul communications, most cities and many towns have systems for providing internet access and links to enable camera surveillance systems (CCTV). In this post I outline what is going on.
Sunday 3 July 2022
Our culture is in a dead end, the rise of the Safety-Nazis and the rise of mental illness go hand-in-hand. We need to pursue meaning, not happiness, we need to follow the path of self-development, not trying to be the best compared to others. As Peterson put it, compare yourself not with others, rather compare yourself with who you were yesterday, or indeed, last year.
Tuesday 28 June 2022
Ten years ago Andrej Karpathy lamented the state of AI vision research. He is now a lead on Tesla's autopilot vision team, probably placed better than anyone to have revised his opinion. Anyway, this led to a Deep Mind researcher, Roman Ring, to use the photo cited by Karpathy in a little experiment.
Saturday 25 June 2022
In my prior post about harmonics I delved into the sine wave. In this post I want to show a practical use of this understanding.
Monday 20 June 2022
I've been doing an awful lot of thinking about Lemoine, LaMDA, and Google. I remain open to there being something like sentience in LaMDA and GPT3, because there seems to be evidence of intelligence and understanding in both systems configured as chat-bots. However I do not think the evidence goes as far as a sentience potentially requiring consideration of personhood.
Monday 13 June 2022
As reported in New Scientist and elsewhere, a Google engineer has been suspended for going public with his opinion that Google's LaMDA transformer model is sentient. The experts say he is mistaken, are they just falling foul of Clarke's First Law?
Saturday 11 June 2022
I want to go down a rabbit hole in the mathematics of harmonics in signals, but first I need to do some ground-work, so here is some explanation of sine waves.
Sunday 5 June 2022
Thursday 2 June 2022
Johnny Depp has been vindicated and Amber Heard has been revealed as a dangerous woman with serious psychological issues. This follows a contrary decision in UK courts, in terms of public perception the difference between the two is that this time we could follow, because this court action was televised. The result is an event that is diagnostic of the deep sickness in the culture of the West.
Tuesday 31 May 2022
DoodleChaos on Youtube has used a diffusion model from Google, Disco Diffusion v5.2, to produce a music video. This avenue of AI is all new to me, never heard of this system, but watching it is an astonishing experience.
Wednesday 18 May 2022
A talk by Konstantin Kisin about why the West is worth saving (20 minutes).
Monday 16 May 2022
Thursday 28 April 2022
If you had a super-intelligent General Artificial Intelligence and you asked it to produce as many paperclips as possible, the results could be catastrophic. It could destroy the Earth in search of the goal of optimising the manufacture of paperclips. This is an often used analogy designed to illustrate the dangers of poorly defined goals in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). However this paradigm of analysis has wider utility in consideration of society.
Sunday 24 April 2022
In May 2015 I concluded a series of posts with The Slow Transition. It was a risky prognostication but an additional 7 years of data has supported what I said back then: That the transition to a seasonally sea ice free state would be slow, not fast, as some argued. This post is about the period preceding that, and with the further 7 years of data something substantive can be said about that.
The Arctic Ocean's sea-ice has undergone a fast transition from one stable mode to another equally stable mode. Between those modes there was a bifurcation driven by the power of an increase of Open Water Formation Efficiency and Ice Albedo Feedback. That bifurcation happened between 2002 and 2006, with the 2007 stochastic event delivering the coup-de-grace that finalised the bifurcation event.
Friday 22 April 2022
Sunday 17 April 2022
Open Water Formation Efficiency (OWFE) is a measure of the ease with which melt season thinning of sea-ice reveals open water. In March I published a post looking at how this operates from a theoretical perspective. In this post I look at how it operates in practice in various regions of the Arctic Ocean.
Thursday 14 April 2022
Monday 11 April 2022
Russia, the enemy, is afoot in Ukraine, yet The West demurs to engage properly, preferring instead to wage a proxy war. In this stance the West and NATO show themselves to be weak and effete, worse than this, The West has the blood of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians on its hands.
Wednesday 6 April 2022
Saturday 2 April 2022
Monday 28 March 2022
The way out of the current subversion of our culture by Woke Totalitarianism is not by opposing it, being from a totally irrational background, discussion with its adherents is totally futile. And in many countries, such as here in the UK, the takeover of culture is already largely complete. Further, if Western Civilisation can be subverted by a culture of inherent weakness, a victim culture, then the husk of that civilisation was never worth saving anyway. This has been spotted by our rivals and has a causal role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sunday 27 March 2022
Previously, 9 years ago, I produced two posts on Open Water Formation Efficiency, here and here. Now, as a bed rock to a series of posts I am going to revisit that issue. First, in this post, I outline a theoretical model to demonstrate the process involved.
Monday 21 March 2022
Sunday 20 March 2022
In 2016 I posted about UK rainfall and found that by the measure used the probability of a very wet year had increased in recent decades to 3/6 from a prior frequency of 1/6. In this post I revisit that work using an improved demarcation for wet and very wet.
What I have now found is a change of precipitation around 1998, before which the joint probability of a wet or extreme wet year has now risen from 18% prior to 1998 to 58%, a three-fold risk increase, in line with my 2016 work.
This is a substantial change with serious implications for human impacts such as flooding.
Tuesday 15 March 2022
I am restarting blogging. Work on reprocessing PIOMAS and other data is currently ongoing and in due course I shall be publishing and maintaining data, as I once did. However blogging will follow a wider area of interests than just sea ice.
But first some useful words from David Starkey.
Saturday 29 January 2022
Thursday 27 January 2022
In this post I just want to go over some of what the rather limited current Artificial Intelligence agents are capable of. This is going to be rather cursory and fast, I don't have the time or inclination to write a book. I'm sure you don't have the time to read it anyway. The comments section is there is you want to ask me to back anything up.
Tuesday 11 January 2022
The previous two posts contained annotated transcripts of conversations between myself and GPT3 Curie, a 9 billion parameter version of GPT3. When I first came across GPT3 operating when configured as a chat bot it was in the video presented here. I'll be frank, I didn't believe it, I knew nothing about GPT3 at that stage.
Sunday 9 January 2022
Friday 7 January 2022
It's been ages since I even looked at this blog, many more years since I was serious about sea ice studies. Given my nature there have been many interesting diversions, but overall, work has so consumed my energies that I have had little time or energy to blog. But over the last year I have found myself becoming more consumed with Artificial Intelligence and (what I consider to be) the ongoing Singularity.