Hadden: The powers that be have been very busy lately, falling over each other to position themselves for the game of the millennium. Maybe I can help deal you back in.Ellie: I didn't realize that I was out.Hadden: Oh... maybe not out, but certainly being handed your hat.
Since posting my rather high prediction on CT Area I've been having doubts about it. A reason to to have confidence in it is the success last year, against the expectations of many including myself. However this year I think CT Area will be at the lower end of the prediction (3.0 to 3.3M km^2), if it is successful, and there is too much of a chance of 2014 being below 3.0 for me to have much confidence in it. The method trains the range to the 2007 to 2013 period, so it is likely overfitted and does not reflect the full range of feasible behaviours after the volume loss events of 2007 and 2010.