No Early Warning of a 2016 Crash

Last May I put forward an early warning indicator for late summer sea ice crashes. What is the state of that indicator like this year?

Peripheral Seas State: Mid June

What is the current state of sea ice in the Peripheral Seas of the Arctic Ocean?

Why should interannual variability increase as Arctic Sea ice thins?

I've tried various ways of looking at interannual variability of sea ice, but haven't found a strong signal of recent increase. Yet I remained convinced that a signal of increased interannual variability should increase. Why?

PIOMAS May Volume Loss

Now that the PIOMAS main series of total volume is out I can look at what that shows about the May volume loss. This being the first part of the overall spring volume loss.

May 2016 Status

The data is now in, so here's a look at May and prospects for the coming summer.

Will Beaufort Stall?

In the Sea Ice Prediction Network releases this year is a report from Haas et al (PDF). In which they note that elements of the evidence suggest that "that the MYI in the region has the same or slightly smaller chances of survival in the coming summer than it had in 2015." However they do point out that it is more fragmented than in 2015.

This raises a question I have pondered, brought about by the detailed behaviour of melt in Beaufort. I expect near open water condition by September, but I wonder if there will be a stall in extent losses in Beaufort on the way to that state.