Last May I put forward an early warning indicator for late summer sea ice crashes. What is the state of that indicator like this year?
In May last year I used 10 June to 30 June average compactness. This year, I'm using 10 June to 28 June compactness, again this is for the Peripheral Seas of the Arctic Ocean. 28 June is the latest data available as of today.
2007 and 2012 were new record low September extents by large margins, in both of those years compactness of the Peripheral Seas was at extreme low levels. That is not the case this year, on the basis of this indicator I do not consider a new record loss this year is at all likely. My April prediction was for a September 2016 extent of 4.0 to 5.3 million kmsq, my expectation is that this September will be in the lower part of that range.