I've been very busy at work, it's audit season, so no spare time. But this weekend is down-time to rest. So I've just had a look at the Arctic Ocean sea ice data for September 2007 to 2022.
The period September 2007 to 2022 is a 16 year period, which finally gives us some solid stats and a good basis for establishing the current post 2007 sea ice climatology.
For the purposes of this, I define the Arctic Ocean as Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, Kara, Barents and Greenland Seas. Data is obtained from here, "N_Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Daily_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx". September extent is calculated as the average for 1st to 30th September inclusive.
What will drive September extent out of this very stable situation?
Below I present the PIOMAS reanalysis sea ice volumes for April and September 1979 to 2022, for the whole PIOMAS domain (which includes the Arctic Ocean itself, as well as other areas).
So the current stability of sea ice is but a pause in the process, assuming continued increases in greenhouse gasses. And that latter proviso seems highly likely to be fulfilled.