I've been busy with work, and part of the additional load has been my trying to plan a response to the coming economic 'circumstances'. This has led to me musing on a saying.
There are three curses, purportedly Chinese in origin, which sound like blessings but are definitely curses.
The curses are:
May find what you seek.
May you come to the attention of those in authority.
May you live in interesting times.
They are curses, because to find what you seek robs you of motivation, if the government take a personal interest in you it is generally not a good thing, and interesting times are times of trouble and stress. My aim at work is to keep the management of things boring, which is attained by paying attention and not letting things get out of hand.
We are most certainly living in such times, with the looming economic contraction due to inflation, and here in Europe, increasing energy prices due to the Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine. All of this is about to be further exacerbated by the current European heatwave's impacts on agriculture.
But that is not all.
Suppressed cries of anguish emerging from China indicate mass refusal to pay mortgages and attempted runs on banks being stifled by use of Covid measures being used to 'house arrest' those protesting that they cannot get their money. In a highly restricted authoritarian regime the first firm indication we may get of this chatter being real may be some sort of internal collapse leading to a major international impact. However even absent such issues, there is clearly a substantial supply side problem in China which is having impacts globally in the electronics industry, it's affecting me at work. This supply issue seems likely to be due to the Chinese government's zero-Covid policy.
David Starkey argues in the following video (30 minutes) that the current inflation spike is largely due to 'monetary easing'. As usual it is a well argued presentation and one with which I whole-heartedly agree.
Against this background, if Russia starts to win in Ukraine, by sheer weight of attrition. Or if the rumours from China are true and precede some sort of economic collapse. Or some factor on nobody's radar. I'm sure I don't need to labour the point.
There are times to contract spending and tighten belts, such times are firmly upon us.
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