SIPN Outcome

I did say in my previous post that I might post a final time on sea ice once September average extent data was out, I have decided to do so, and to cover a couple of other issues.

How is the August extent loss going?

I have previously posted about an apparent oscillation in the August extent loss in recent years, nearing the end of August it is a reasonable time to look at how August losses are going in light of that possible oscillation.

Is the ice unusually fragmented?

I've been rather busy with a new piece of kit, a PicoScope 2206A, so haven't been commenting much on sea ice elsewhere. But this post is once again prompted by claims I read that the Arctic Ocean's ice pack is unusually fragmented. Is it really? Is comparing one year against another through gaps in clouds a satisfactory way of determining how fragmented the pack is?

I think not.

PIOMAS Volume Loss over July

The interesting forecast addressed in my last post involving two cyclones, one being the remnants of tropical storm Molave, hasn't panned out. Such is the risk of using forecasts so far ahead. However the weather still will play a large role in the setting of the September, and it was such a remarkable forecast it was worthy of comment.

Anyway, this is a quick post to update the sea ice volume loss over July and the volume at the end of July using PIOMAS daily volume data. I have now updated all of the regional PIOMAS data available here to the most recent data available.

I also digress at the end to a outlook for the minimum September extent.

Two Cylones that might be significant

Weather forecasts show two possibly important cyclonic weather systems.

PIOMAS July 2015

PIOMAS gridded data is out, well partially.As I type the gice data and daily data hasn't been updated, but I'll proceed with what heff (grid box effective thickness) shows.

July Status: How low can it go?

Rather then do a proper run down of July conditions I have decided to mostly look forward, although in doing so I cover July. In my previous post on sea ice conditions I covered up to mid July, and essentially not much has changed, the Arctic Dipole has dominated through July and sets the scene for August.

Before I begin, apologies for the stupid 'Cookies' message, this is a result of European Union legislation.

A Correction

In mid June I posted a blog post asking about whether we were facing a crash this year. This was based on the US Navy's ACNFS Model, which I have previously called HYCOM. Shortly after the post the model version I had used was put behind a password wall, the US Navy had realised that it wasn't signed off for public release.

Now it seems there is a problem with ACNFS, as found out by Peter Ellis at the Sea Ice Forum. Basically the massive melt ACNFS showed this summer was due to a glitch in the model. These things happen, the only people who don't make mistakes are those who never try anything, and the more complex one's endeavour the more likely mistakes are.

So my question in mid June about us facing a crash this year was based on flawed data.

This doesn't affect any of my recent blog posts because the password walling of ACNFS made me suspect something was up, on that I was wrong in the end, it was walled for another reason. But after the PIOMAS data I suspected something was off with ACNFS, by my June Status post I used ACNFS but came to the conclusion there would not be a crash this year.

I will be using ACNFS for ice movement, but for other metrics will probably rest use of it for the remainder of the summer season, perhaps longer, to give them time to get things sorted.

Mid Summer 2015 Status

Taking the Arctic Ocean summer season as June to the sea ice minimum, around now is the middle of the summer. In this post I look at the state of the ice mid summer, and offer a guess of what the minimum will be.

Hello Dipole My Old Friend

I have previously written about the Arctic Dipole, and note that it now has a Wikipedia page. Over the last two years it has been largely absent, leading myself and others to ponder whether it was a transitory phase over the 2007 to 2012 period.

It doesn't seem to have been transitory, it has dominated July so far and looks set to continue throughout the rest of July. My expectation is for it to continue into August, that however is just an expectation based on behaviour in 2007 to 2012.

What would it take to get to 1 million kmsq?

I now have data to 15 July for regional extent (thanks Wipneus). With two months to go to the middle of September, the period for which the minimum can reasonably be expected, what would it take to reach 1 million kmsq by this September?

The Chukchi Rout

In my previous post I covered, amongst other issues, the large region of collapsing ice shown in the Chukchi Sea. Now with three days more data it is clear that Chukchi is suffering a rout.

HRPT Satellite 7 July 2015

I had to post the following image because with clear skies it really paints the picture of ice state in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean. Ice state is excellent for significant losses this year, a re-run of 2013 and 2014 looks very unlikely.

June 2015 Status

June data is now fully available, so here is my commentary on the current sea ice state and the month just passed. Sorry but this is a long post...

June SIPN and CT Area Prediction 2015

June's Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) summary has taken so long to come out I had stopped checking for it. Commenter Nightvid let me know last night that it was out (Thanks!). And whilst I am on the subject of prediction I will include my prediction for Cryopshere Today Area (CT Area).

Are we facing a crash in 2015?

This blog post was based on data from the US Navy's ACNFS model (known as HYCOM in this post). It has turned out that the massive melt shown in the model was due to a technical glitch. This post is kept as I don't delete posts, but it is no longer considered valid.

Correction statement with links to details here.

***

It's bad form to blog on consecutive nights, but I'm now going to say something that has been on my mind for over a week.

Last year, and the year before, I recollect a lot of excitable discussion at the forum in June about how we were going to see a crash in sea ice. A lot of talk about how the weather would shift and massive losses would start, of course as we now know, that just didn't happen.

Looking promising...

Just a quick post with some graphs, because things are looking better in the Arctic Ocean for a more exciting melt season than the last two years. All of these graphs use anomalies from the 1981 to 2010 average.

Mid June 2015

June seems to represent a crucial period of pre-conditioning for the summer melt season, with large June sea ice losses in years of large summer losses, such as 2007, 2011 and 2012. The purpose of this blog post is to consider what is happening in June this year, and the prospects for the rest of June and the summer.

May 2015 Status: PIOMAS

This will be a rather short post, I will have much more to say about the June PIOMAS data. But for now, partly due to work, here's some late comments on PIOMAS May data.

May 2015 Status: Four Dipoles

Not all of the NCEP/NCAR data is available, and PIOMAS is yet to be released, but with the data available there is still a lot to cover about sea ice state in May 2015.