Just a quick post with some graphs, because things are looking better in the Arctic Ocean for a more exciting melt season than the last two years. All of these graphs use anomalies from the 1981 to 2010 average.
A proper analysis will follow in early July, for now here is a snapshot of a rather exciting development.
Extent for the Arctic Ocean shows a fall in anomalies, loss being greater than average.
While for the whole Arctic anomalies remain level, loss is around average.
But area has just crashed through June, and crashed substantially.
This has led to compactness (area divided by extent) dropping substantially, which is good for those of us who enjoy exciting summers of ice loss. Lower compactness implies more dispersed ice and a greater absorption of sunlight, preconditioning the pack for losses later in the summer.
I've recently suggested that average compactness from 10 to 30 June may predict large loss summers. This drop in compactness doesn't suggest that is likely, we're only 7 days into that period and even 2013 saw a large drop of compactness at this time. Before we get to the end of June there is the indicator of CT Area (Cryosphere Today Area).
CT Area losses for late summer are very amenable to prediction, my prediction will be made shortly after 23 June. But for now here is the current state of anomalies for CT Area.
In terms of CT Area one can imagine a straight line from the area anomaly at 23 June to the minimum as the central value of the prediction, this is because of the lack of trend of late summer losses in that index (slope is 0.0006M km^2/year). Then the bounds can be applied, bounds of 0.37M km^2 above and below the central value makes hindcasts 80% successful. There is a week until 23 June, which means substantial losses of CT Area at far more than an average rate must occur to make a large crash this year feasible.
I don't think we'll see a large crash this year, I am certainly not throwing away my SIPN prediction, but I do think there is a better chance of an exciting year than we have seen over the last two summers.