The Slow Transition

I've been busy with the day job, which has given me time to ponder something I've hinted at before but am now firmly behind. This year isn't a major factor, due to my increased workload in the day job I've had time away from this subject doing something else (often repetitive and boring admin) that has let my subconscious work on the issue - the issue being the long term outlook for Arctic sea ice. Here is what I am now 90% convinced of, having entertained the scenario as a possibility over the last year or so.

18 June to 18 July 2014

As discussed previously, on 18 June 2014 the weather shifted, the early June delayed start to the melt season came to an end and the melt season started in earnest. Now data is available for 18 July 2014, so I'm giving a brief summary of the sea ice situation one month on.

That 'no warming since 1998' bollocks meme.

I've had this blog post written but on hold for some months, I never seemed to have the mind to publish, but I've just stumbled upon someone claiming 'no global warming for 18 years', and it's moved me to post.

Mid July Status

This post is really a very late June Status Part 3 because my day job is crowding out this hobby, but rather than restrict to June PIOMAS data, I've added in some extent data to drag it into mid July. So, I'm sorry but that means it's dauntingly long, although I tried to keep the words to a minimum and let the graphs convey message.

June PIOMAS data, 2014 prediction - Correction.

This is a rewrite and re-issue of the blog post entitled June PIOMAS data, 2014 prediction revised upward.

Due to increased workload in my day job I've been working late while tired, and in rushing to make the July Sea Ice Prediction Network submission date, I made an error in the spreadsheet. So my 4.7M to 5.1M km^2 prediction was wrong. By now I've missed the deadline and this morning emailed SIPN to ask that my submission be withdrawn as I wouldn't have the chance to re-write it.

The data I provide derived from PIOMAS gridded data has now been updated for June. Daily gridded data has not been updated this month, so the daily regional volume file is not updated. Data are available from this blog post, which also explains the data.

For those who have already read the original post, scroll down to the heading Correction.

June Status: Part 2.

This is filler post before we get the PIOMAS data. Wipneus has calculated regional breakdowns of NSIDC extent based on their gridded data, something I started doing but couldn't work out the correct ocean masking to use. Anyway that issue has been solved, Wipneus has been doing the number crunching and has let me have the data.

June Status: Part 1

Crucial to what I think will happen later this season is the PIOMAS data, as I wait for that the NCEP/NCAR data is now updated, and of course we have extent and area data. So here's the situation over June.

Watch this space. Part 2.

Back on the 11 June this year I drew attention to a large polnya in the Laptev Sea and suggested it was likely to play a large role in the 2014 melt season. With data available through to 30 June it's time to see how it's going.