March PIOMAS data is out, so it's time to look at the current state of the pack. I've decided to continue these monthly status posts up to September, normally I don't follow the melt season very closely, but this one seems to me to be an important test of my understanding of the mechanisms behind the most recent phase of sea ice loss.
Saturday, 6 April 2013
Tuesday, 2 April 2013
It's Pin the Tail on the Donkey time.
Neven has published a pole on this years minimum: What will the CT 2013 Arctic SIA minimum be?
CT means Cryosphere Today, and the question at hand is what will the daily minimum be.
Here's a link to the CT Area data. Here's a link to a thread I've written on spreadsheeting this sort of Arctic sea ice data. And if you don't want to build such a spreadsheet yourself then the first line of the top post there gives a link to such a spreadsheet. I'll be updating that at least once a month with the new data, probably more often later in the season if this year's melt season turns out to be as exciting as I anticipate. Feel free to use/modify/whaddeva, as you need - I don't own the data.
Anyway, here's a link to my answer - what I think this year's minimum will be, or at least the range I think it will be in. In a nutshell it's:
There's no numerical backup, just a qualitative argument. I just thought it worth recording here so I can keep a check on progress.
No need to click more...
...there is no more. ;)
CT means Cryosphere Today, and the question at hand is what will the daily minimum be.
Here's a link to the CT Area data. Here's a link to a thread I've written on spreadsheeting this sort of Arctic sea ice data. And if you don't want to build such a spreadsheet yourself then the first line of the top post there gives a link to such a spreadsheet. I'll be updating that at least once a month with the new data, probably more often later in the season if this year's melt season turns out to be as exciting as I anticipate. Feel free to use/modify/whaddeva, as you need - I don't own the data.
Anyway, here's a link to my answer - what I think this year's minimum will be, or at least the range I think it will be in. In a nutshell it's:
I've voted between 1 and 2 M km^2, this is what I see as most likely, if I had a second vote it would be 2.234 to 2 M km^2. But I now rate the probabilities as around 75% and 25% respectively, with a probability distribution peaking between 1.75 and 2, and a slim tail extending down towards 1M km^2.
There's no numerical backup, just a qualitative argument. I just thought it worth recording here so I can keep a check on progress.
No need to click more...
...there is no more. ;)
Sunday, 31 March 2013
Eurasian Snow Cover and Atmospheric Impacts
I've been looking again at the new summer atmospheric circulation pattern. In "The Recent Shift in Early Summer Arctic Atmospheric Circulation.", abstract, Overland et al identify the shift as an Arctic Dipole pattern. However as I have shown, and as Overland et al also state, this has wider impacts.
But is there a role for snow cover changes in driving this new pattern, and if so what is it?
But is there a role for snow cover changes in driving this new pattern, and if so what is it?
Well I'm not going to post on April 1st...
...that could cause all sorts of misunderstandings.
Here's a rather late Monthly Miscellanea post.
Here's a rather late Monthly Miscellanea post.
Tuesday, 19 March 2013
What caused the volume loss in 2010: Part 2.
Back in September 2012 I wrote some posts on the 2010 volume loss in PIOMAS, why it was important, and what caused it. I'm now able to add another layer of detail into the explanation of what caused the 2010 volume loss and consider whether it has any reality outside of the PIOMAS model. I'm more confident that the 2010 volume loss was real, not just a blip in a model.
Tuesday, 12 March 2013
February 2013 Status
PIOMAS Data are now out so it's time for my February Status post. I hadn't intended to do these each month, but in light of the recent fracturing and the imminence of the Spring melt I've decided to keep with it until September at least. The pressures of overtime however mean this one's a bit shallow and bitty.
Sunday, 3 March 2013
The Beaufort Break Up of February 2013
Over the last week there has been a large fracturing event in the Beaufort Sea, the aftermath of this event continues to unfold. This is being discussed at Neven's Sea Ice Blog, and at the new Arctic Sea Ice Forum. In this post I summarise my understanding which has been posted on those sites in a piecemeal fashion.
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