Thursday 2 July 2015


Tamino has recently posted a summary of the drought situation in California. Frankly if I lived there and read that post (or read the news!) I would be selling up and moving out before it gets worse. Anyway, now that I have finally got round to doing it, this seemed like a good excuse to finally get round to updating the UK rainfall plot.

Click on the graph to enlarge.

Here in the UK we never do things on quite as grand a scale as in the US, but adding 2014's data to the UK rainfall graph shows a marked and continuing shift to increased frequency of wetter years over the last two decades. Is this due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW)? I have failed to find a firm link, but equally have failed to find an alternate explanation. So all I am left with is suspicion, and the obvious suspect is AGW.

Normal sea ice service will be resumed with a blog post on Sunday.


Blaine said...

Yes, UK annual rainfall is correlated to AGW/time, but the stronger correlation is to +AMOC and -NAO. This correlation is fairly weak other than in the summer, but remains apparent in the annual data. Just look at all those drought years during the AMOC minimum in the 70s.

Rainfall in the Midwest and Plains of the US hasn't gotten back to normal yet. Rainfall in Illinois in June set a new record by 15%. The Mississippi confluence with the Ohio has been setting daily records for three weeks straight now, by up to around 30% above the previous daily record high flow.

Chris Reynolds said...

If the 'suspicion' about a link to AGW is correct, and the recent behaviour in the context the series since 1910 suggests something odd is happening in recent decades. Then what seems to be going on is not an easy AGW relationship but a modulation of a mode such as AMOC (of which I was not aware - thanks) or the NAO.