The CT Area anomaly cliff seen in recent years, including 2013, has failed to happen so far this June. It is not too late for this to happen if weather conditions change, but that would require a significant change to the weather.
NSIDC Extent anomalies have started to drop in June for the years after the 2010 volume loss event, again so far this has not happened and 2014 looks more like 2013.
Using NSIDC Extent data I have calculated the difference between 2014 and the stated years for each day from 30 April to 13 June (the most recent data). 2010, 2011 and 2012 are clearly lower than 2014, however 2014 is lower than 2013. Whether the uptick in the end of the data will continue remains to be seen.
Ranking the 13 June extents and areas shows that 2014 is in 7th place for CT Area and 6th place in terms of NSIDC Extent. 2014 is in red, post 2007 years are emboldened.
|CT Area||NSIDC Extent|
Temperatures in early June look to be a contender for the coldest early June in recent years. For example, here are 2014, 2013 and 2012.
2014 is seen to have a larger area of below average temperatures than even 2013, while the warmth of early 2012 is marked. Unfortunately NCEP/NCAR doesn't do timeseries for periods of days, only full months.
The atmospheric set up that has caused 2014 to have a slow start, as did 2013, shows that early June 2014 is not like early June 2013. I expect some may be arguing, based on sea ice data alone, that two years mean the start of a recovery, there is no indication of a common process at work so this reasoning is flawed.
These were plotted on 11 June showing data up to 9 June, I've not had the chance to post until now.
By early June in 2012 the atmosphere was already showing the signature of the 2007 to 2012 summer average sea level pressure, what I call the Summer Pattern, shown below.
Wetterzantrale). However with such long term forecasts there is also the possibility it won't, so I'll just see what happens.
Prospects for a new record this year are looking very remote now, however it is still possible for 2014 to enter the top five lowest years for NSIDC Extent, everything depends on the weather. It will be interesting to see how this will affect the PIOMAS spring melt, based on 2013 I expect that the effect will be small.