What is the future of Arctic Sea Ice? Part 1.

Recently I blogged about a paper showing the cause of the post 1995 volume decline in PIOMAS, this being the period of greatest and most persistent volume loss. The cause turned out to be self-acceleration of volume loss caused by the ice albedo feedback, as this is such a fundamental process and as the later version of the PIOMAS has proven to be so successful, I am in little doubt that Lindsay & Zhang's hypothesis is correct and that in the 1990s atmospheric impacts on the ice ushered in a period of decline largely driven by the ice albedo feedback.

There is really only one issue I can move on to address now, and that is the future of the sea ice.

PIOMAS March 2014

PIOMAS volume data is now out for March. The PIOMAS model uses NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to drive the ice and ocean components of the model, so the monthly data is for the month up to the final day of the month. Some thickening is due to occur over April in the Arctic Ocean, but this is typically small. So this data can be taken as indicative of conditions as the melt season starts.

2014: Large MYI Export into Beaufort & Chukchi

Last year weather led to a pulse of increased volume being fed into the sea ice system, since then we have seen this pulse being severely reduced. Now much of the increased extent of older ice (multi-year ice or MYI) in the Central Arctic has been transported out into Beaufort and is currently making its way into Chukchi. What does this mean for the coming melt season?

What caused the volume loss in PIOMAS?

Behind all of my blogging on sea ice is the volume loss, which is driving the changes. The volume loss is shown by other data (e.g. Submarine upward looking sonar, ICESat, IceBridge, Cryosat 2), but the most detailed picture is that provided by PIOMAS. What is driving the volume loss in PIOMAS and is this process at work in reality?

Sea Ice Thinning, Open Water Formation, and Ice Albedo Feedback

What is the link between the thinning of Arctic Sea ice and the increased open water seen in recent years?

PIOMAS Gridded Data: February 2014.

PIOMAS gridded data has been released for February giving some more detail about current ice state. The peak volume for the whole Arctic is in April, thickening continues in the central Arctic into May, so there is still time for thickening but I don't expect the volume to reach the high level compared to last year. The 2013 volume pulse seems to be largely spent.

PIOMAS February 2014

In terms of PIOMAS total volume the winter sea ice seems to have lost the 2013 volume gain. What might this mean for 2014's impending melt season?