The Post 2007 Arctic Ocean September Extent

I've been very busy at work, it's audit season, so no spare time. But this weekend is down-time to rest. So I've just had a look at the Arctic Ocean sea ice data for September 2007 to 2022.

The August Extent Loss Oscillation: 2016 Update

Back in 2014 I suggested that there may be an oscillation of extent loss. According to the supposed oscillation this year should have seen a large loss in August, this didn't happen.

No Early Warning of a 2016 Crash

Last May I put forward an early warning indicator for late summer sea ice crashes. What is the state of that indicator like this year?

May 2016 Status

The data is now in, so here's a look at May and prospects for the coming summer.

Beaufort Starts Early

The 2016 sea ice melt season in the Arctic has started, Beaufort starts early this year, but does this mean it is starting as it means to continue?

The August Extent Loss Oscillation (a belated 2015 update)

In 2014 I posted about an apparent oscillation of August extent loss, I updated this with preliminary data in August 2015, but failed to return to the issue to see how things actually turned out. As this issue has a bearing on the post that follows, and prompted by reading a comment at Neven's blog about claimed cycles in sea ice, I am posting this to update data on last year's August extent loss.

What is interesting about maximum extent?

The maximum has never excited me in the way the minimum extent can, but there is something interesting about it.

The Autumn Inflection, and a Digression into Early Summer

Last week while updating my spreadsheets for the first time since September* and generally catching up I realised that there is a feature that I've not addressed before, the change of rate of sea ice gain in Autumn. *The PIOMAS data is now updated, last updated in August, see top box on the right of the page, top link.

How is the August extent loss going?

I have previously posted about an apparent oscillation in the August extent loss in recent years, nearing the end of August it is a reasonable time to look at how August losses are going in light of that possible oscillation.

Is the ice unusually fragmented?

I've been rather busy with a new piece of kit, a PicoScope 2206A, so haven't been commenting much on sea ice elsewhere. But this post is once again prompted by claims I read that the Arctic Ocean's ice pack is unusually fragmented. Is it really? Is comparing one year against another through gaps in clouds a satisfactory way of determining how fragmented the pack is?

I think not.

July Status: How low can it go?

Rather then do a proper run down of July conditions I have decided to mostly look forward, although in doing so I cover July. In my previous post on sea ice conditions I covered up to mid July, and essentially not much has changed, the Arctic Dipole has dominated through July and sets the scene for August.

Before I begin, apologies for the stupid 'Cookies' message, this is a result of European Union legislation.

Mid Summer 2015 Status

Taking the Arctic Ocean summer season as June to the sea ice minimum, around now is the middle of the summer. In this post I look at the state of the ice mid summer, and offer a guess of what the minimum will be.

What would it take to get to 1 million kmsq?

I now have data to 15 July for regional extent (thanks Wipneus). With two months to go to the middle of September, the period for which the minimum can reasonably be expected, what would it take to reach 1 million kmsq by this September?

June 2015 Status

June data is now fully available, so here is my commentary on the current sea ice state and the month just passed. Sorry but this is a long post...

2015 September NSIDC Extent Prediction

This is the prediction I will be submitting for the June Sea Ice Prediction Network 2015 predictions. I wasn't aware of the mid May call for early season predictions, as I use April data I could have put this in for that round.

The Slow Transition

Ten months ago I posted about my change of mind, from thinking that a fast crash was a very real possibility to expecting a slow transition of the Arctic sea ice to a seasonally ice free state. I have now finished the series of posts detailing my argument. I should start by clarifying; by a slow transition I do not expect the summer sea ice to last into the 2050s, I suspect that around 2030 we will see the first summer with an extent of less than 1 million km^2.

The Slow Transition: The BCE Region

The BCE region is the region covered by the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and the East Siberian Sea. For there to be a virtually ice free Arctic any September soon, the BCE region must melt out early in the season. This post is the penultimate post in my argument that we face a slow transition of the Arctic sea ice, after which I will wrap up the argument with a summary, before moving on to watch this season.

Coincidentally, as others including Neven have noted, Beaufort is very interesting right now, this winter's export of multi year ice makes me suspect it will stall, but an early start in Beaufort is promising for a more exciting season than the last two years. Here's hoping...

An Early Warning for Summer Sea Ice Crashes?

Just a quick post on on of the elements I've looked at while trying to improve prediction for the summer. This comes with a caution, because the method outlined only 'predicts' two recent sea ice summer loss events, the 2007 and 2012 crashes. Time will tell whether it is of any use in the future.

April 2015 Status. Part 1.

This post is the first of two blog posts examining ice state as of April 2015. April extent is very low but this has little impact on the coming season. A greater factor is thickness and the thickness distribution of the ice, and the best available tool for that is the PIOMAS sea ice reanalysis system. Due to the length of this post I will address thickness breakdown of PIOMAS data using both grid box effective thickness and the sub grid thickness distribution in a post in the next few days.

Summer Sea Ice in the Laptev Sea

I've recently been looking at the PIOMAS Gice data, about which I will explain briefly here and in more depth later this month. Of the areas I have been looking at one that has struck me is the Laptev Sea, the other is Baffin Bay, on which I will blog in due course. But for now, Laptev: