First off, the UK. I've used the Central England Temperature (HADCET) dataset, available here. Monthly means are used, from 1659 to date this is the longest dataset of monthly temperatures, it is based on a selection of locations in England (PDF table 1a).
I've calculated the full year average for 2014 on the assumption that December 2014 is average for the 30 year period 1984 to 2013. Based on this assumption 2014 is seen to be the warmest year since 1659.
As can be appreciated from the above graph, local weather strongly affects temperature, although the overall warming trend due to anthropogenic global warming is clearly evident. The difference between the January to November and January to December average temperatures has been calculated, the average being 0.47degC, the standard deviation being 0.15degC. For Decembers from 1984 to 2013 the average temperature has been 4.86degC, at present temperatures are probably running about that, but I note from the forecast that milder weather is due to set in over the coming weekend. In order for a new record to be set by January the December average merely has to exceed about 4.1 degC (which would mean 2014 would meet the previous warmest year in the HADCET record; 2007).
In the UK for December 4.1degC is rather cool. Only 7 years for the 30 years from 1984 to 2013 were colder, of those the coldest was December 2009 (-0.7degC), the start of an exceptionally cold winter. These seem to be associated with a state of weakened westerlies, with the difference from long term average being an easterly flow, whether December sees such a state develop remains to be seen. Forecasts to mid December do not suggest it is likely.
Using the January to October average isn't as poor a choice as it might seem at first glance. The average difference between January to October and January to December averages is 0.00degC, showing the difference to be well balanced around zero, the maximum is 0.04degC, the minimum is -0.05degC. For the 2014 January to October average of 0.66degC, the above maximum and minimum represent deviations of +6% / -7%.
The previous maximum anomaly of annual average global temperature in GISS LOTI was 0.66degC in 2010, at 0.66degC in 2005 and at 0.62degC in 2007 so far three years exceed the 1998 high of 0.61degC. 2014 could easily become the fourth year to exceed the 1998 record, a record set with the help of a super-El Nino, such a feature did not aid those successive three warmest years.
Assuming that the probability distribution is rectangular, with the +6% / -7% uncertainty applied to the 0.66degC supposed for 2014 gives a 2/3 probability of this year not beating 2010, and 1/3 of it beating 2010 and making a new record. For 2014 not to be the fourth year to beat 1998 would require the difference between the January to October average and the full year January to December average to be the lowest since 1880.
So the odds look reasonable for the UK Central England Temperature series and the NASA GISS LOTI series to be new record highs this year. Even without such new records the data will add to the more important upwards trends in both UK and global temperature. Trends are not just about records, and it's trends that matter.
Before I click to post this, it just occurred to me to look at NCEP/NCAR surface temperature for the whole globe, which is now available to November 2014. So for the sake of idle curiosity, here's January to November NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis surface temperature for the globe.