Predicting the CT Area minimum

Crysophere Today Area (CT Area) is the dataset produced by the Polar Research Group at the University of Illinois. I've stopped using it since last year, I now concentrate on NSIDC Extent and PIOMAS. But it has a peculiarity that makes it worth picking up again.

The bitter irony of Paul Homewood

Who's Paul Homewood? It doesn't really matter, he's just another tedious climate change denialist, but the irony of this amused me.

An Early Warning for Summer Sea Ice Crashes?

Just a quick post on on of the elements I've looked at while trying to improve prediction for the summer. This comes with a caution, because the method outlined only 'predicts' two recent sea ice summer loss events, the 2007 and 2012 crashes. Time will tell whether it is of any use in the future.

April 2015 Status. Part 2.

Part 2 of my summary of April sea ice state focusses on ice thickness as seen in PIOMAS. So for those who have been awaiting the more detailed thickness distribution plots by region here is the detail that may help form opinions as to prospects for the coming melt season.

April 2015 Status. Part 1.

This post is the first of two blog posts examining ice state as of April 2015. April extent is very low but this has little impact on the coming season. A greater factor is thickness and the thickness distribution of the ice, and the best available tool for that is the PIOMAS sea ice reanalysis system. Due to the length of this post I will address thickness breakdown of PIOMAS data using both grid box effective thickness and the sub grid thickness distribution in a post in the next few days.

Is Arctic Sea Ice Like a Cup or a Ball?

As posted at Neven's blog, Wagner and Eisenman have recently published a paper building on an active area of research into whether the loss of sea ice will be linear or non linear. Thanks to Neven for bringing my attention to this paper and to HotWhopper for the link to a pre-print of Wagner & Eisenman. Although HotWhopper almost negates the provision of the actual paper by giving a guided tour of some comments at Dumbass Central. ;)

Atlantic Sector Extent, Late April 2015

Extent has been definitely falling, this is accompanied by rather intersting conditions in the Atlantic sector of the pack. What is going on there? I hazard a guess concerning the very low extent in Barents.