Monday, 7 July 2014

June PIOMAS data, 2014 prediction - Correction.

This is a rewrite and re-issue of the blog post entitled June PIOMAS data, 2014 prediction revised upward.

Due to increased workload in my day job I've been working late while tired, and in rushing to make the July Sea Ice Prediction Network submission date, I made an error in the spreadsheet. So my 4.7M to 5.1M km^2 prediction was wrong. By now I've missed the deadline and this morning emailed SIPN to ask that my submission be withdrawn as I wouldn't have the chance to re-write it.

The data I provide derived from PIOMAS gridded data has now been updated for June. Daily gridded data has not been updated this month, so the daily regional volume file is not updated. Data are available from this blog post, which also explains the data.

For those who have already read the original post, scroll down to the heading Correction.

The spring melt has been severely curtailed this year.

While the peak thickness distribution around 2m has dropped, there is a strong presence of thicker ice in the Central Arctic. The title for this graphic is wrong - the data is for June.

This is seen in regional average thickness, however from Beaufort to Laptev thickness is lower this year.


For completeness I provide the prediction for this September NSIDC sea ice extent using the method employed for my June SIPN submission. However I don't have the time to properly consider this, so do not consider it to be a formal prediction, I cannot say whether I have any faith in it or not. I do not however consider the lower end of the range as likely, this is the numeric lower range implied by the 2012 record, a re-run of 2012 is not likely now.

For a new record to be set substantial inroads would need to be made into the Central region, this contains substantial residual thick ice from last year. For a more average post 2007 loss only the peripheral seas need to melt out. Applying my Sea Ice Prediction Network prediction of June (using May volume data) to the June PIOMAS data gives a range 3.87M km^2 to 4.94M km^2 September sea ice extent. Previously my prediction had been 3.48 to 4.62M km^2, based solely on May volume data. This prediction is in the same range.

I'm sorry for any confusion caused by this error. To avoid such errors in the months to come I will be severely curtailing my blogging, something has to give, and it has to be my hobby, not my day job. Throughout the summer I aim to produce at least monthly summaries. This weekend I aim to summarise the June PIOMAS data.


Kevin O'Neill said...

The sun is up nearly 24 hours a day during these months in the north. There are times I feel like I am too.

Our scope of accreditation audit is next week. Que sera sera.

Hope you find some balance.

Chris Reynolds said...

Hi Kevin,

Got some time before ours - September. It'll be better when we have someone to replace me in the lab and do the work I was doing.

Que sera sera indeed, it would have been nice to have entered the July SIPN, but there's always next year. I will definitely be posting in detail this weekend.

iceman said...

So from your third graph we can infer that the main regional factors in the slowdown of volume loss are:
a) Central Arctic - greater compaction and lower albedo (as noted in your previous blog post);
b) Kara - later onset of melt than in recent years, with persistent cool/cloudy conditions;
c) Barents - some ice export as wind patterns have shifted away from Fram Strait.

Kara has been quite the weather outlier this year, another snowfall over the northeastern side today

Chris Reynolds said...


Yes that's not unreasonable. Further detail in my Mid July summary.