June SIPN and CT Area Prediction 2015

June's Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) summary has taken so long to come out I had stopped checking for it. Commenter Nightvid let me know last night that it was out (Thanks!). And whilst I am on the subject of prediction I will include my prediction for Cryopshere Today Area (CT Area).

What role did the GAC of 2012 play in the 2012 crash?

A correspondent asks...

I don't know if you have already read and discussed conclusions presented in this article, but it suggests that GAC -2012 was not a major factor in record ice retreat. I thought it may be useful to the discussion on preconditioning of ice melt and summer ice cover.

"The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat". Zhang et al 2013.

Are we facing a crash in 2015?

This blog post was based on data from the US Navy's ACNFS model (known as HYCOM in this post). It has turned out that the massive melt shown in the model was due to a technical glitch. This post is kept as I don't delete posts, but it is no longer considered valid.

Correction statement with links to details here.

***

It's bad form to blog on consecutive nights, but I'm now going to say something that has been on my mind for over a week.

Last year, and the year before, I recollect a lot of excitable discussion at the forum in June about how we were going to see a crash in sea ice. A lot of talk about how the weather would shift and massive losses would start, of course as we now know, that just didn't happen.

Looking promising...

Just a quick post with some graphs, because things are looking better in the Arctic Ocean for a more exciting melt season than the last two years. All of these graphs use anomalies from the 1981 to 2010 average.

Mid June 2015

June seems to represent a crucial period of pre-conditioning for the summer melt season, with large June sea ice losses in years of large summer losses, such as 2007, 2011 and 2012. The purpose of this blog post is to consider what is happening in June this year, and the prospects for the rest of June and the summer.

May 2015 Status: PIOMAS

This will be a rather short post, I will have much more to say about the June PIOMAS data. But for now, partly due to work, here's some late comments on PIOMAS May data.

May 2015 Status: Four Dipoles

Not all of the NCEP/NCAR data is available, and PIOMAS is yet to be released, but with the data available there is still a lot to cover about sea ice state in May 2015.