Prediction Update.

On 6 July I made my final prediction for the CT Area minimum, now at 26 August it's worth seeing how that prediction has done, so far.

Seeking Understanding vs Spouting Empty Rhetoric

There will be talk of this year representing a reversal of fortune for the sea ice, and an imminent recovery, or that conditions now are the same as in decades before the turn of this century. I don't take this seriously. And I use it as a measure of the complete lack of grasp those expressing such views have on the situation in the Arctic.

Hat tip to Neven, link, for directing me to WTFWT and consequently getting my hackles up. The result is probably better than just the series of images I was about to post, which can be found by scrolling down to the underlined heading.

Mid August Status: The fat lady draws breath

Now in mid August the potential for 2013 catching up on 2007 or 2011 is remote in my opinion, so it's worth explaining why I think that as I've been quiet for a while. Damn, just seen that Neven has posted today along similar lines, well as this is written I'll post anyway.

July Status: PIOMAS Volume

PIOMAS Volume is now available from the main series, I use the term 'main series' to differentiate from the gridded data, the main series data are available from here, bottom of that page. 2013 shows a gain in volume over previous years

July Status Part 2: Atmosphere

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data for July is now available, so it is possible to assess what the atmospheric state has been in July, and for the summer so far. The atmospheric state in 2013 continues to be remarkable in the context of the other post 2007 years, and this is clearly the proximate cause of the slow melt season seen in 2013.

July Status Part 1: Cryosphere Today Area

The full data for June are now available for Cryosphere Today Area (CT Area). As usual I'm still waiting for NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to produce July average, and as PIOMAS uses NCEP/NCAR data they don't publish their main series on the first of the month. So I'll start by going over CT Area, atmosphere and volume will follow in the next few days.