The Slow Transition: Trendsetters.

Statistical extrapolation of volume loss has been used to make the claim that the Arctic sea ice faces a rapid decline to a state of summer open water within a few years, or at least this decade. Is this technique likely to give expectations that will be disappointed?

Mid November Status

Rather than just do a PIOMAS post, this post presents a few reflections on ice state in October as the refreeze progresses using various sources.

The Fast Transition

The peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean are now virtually ice free in September, they are seasonal sea ice seas.

Need I say more?



It seems I do...

In comments Oale wanted to see this in terms of area, which is fair enough. I've done two graphs, one for area one for extent, both with a plot as percentage of April area and extent.

PIOMAS September 2014: Massive Volume Gain

The story of the 2014 melt season has been one of unexpected ice survival due to weather being largely unfavourable for largescale ice melt. Now, after a delay to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the PIOMAS volume data is out and it is possible to see how much volume gain will be carried over into the 2014/15 winter, and very likely beyond.

The August Extent Loss Oscillation

In my July Status blog post I rounded up by mentioning a possible oscillation in August NSIDC Extent losses. Using the Wipneus extent calculation based on NSIDC concentration, and with the benefit of 2014's August figures, I think it is worth looking at the again.

However I don't have a convincing explanation, and at this stage I am not convinced it needs one.

PIOMAS August 2014

 PIOMAS August data is now out, this is the last monthly status post for 2014. More analysis of this highly unusual year will follow, and occasional commentary on the coming freeze season will follow. But now that the melt season is essentially over there are other sea ice related matter I want to get onto.

PIOMAS? Too busy...

I'm too busy to do a proper write up on the August PIOMAS data, that will remain the case until Sunday. So until then here's one graphic from the August PIOMAS gridded data, I think it puts the significance of 2014 into its proper perspective.

That is a massive slug of thicker ice going into the 2014/15 winter. The derived data has been updated, link, but the daily data has not been updated as gridded hasn't, that doesn't come each month.