Arctic Ocean: A New Ice Pack

Just a quick first review of PIOMAS data from 1978 to 2021. The results of this preliminary data-dive are what I had expected, which is not good.

The Slow Transition

Ten months ago I posted about my change of mind, from thinking that a fast crash was a very real possibility to expecting a slow transition of the Arctic sea ice to a seasonally ice free state. I have now finished the series of posts detailing my argument. I should start by clarifying; by a slow transition I do not expect the summer sea ice to last into the 2050s, I suspect that around 2030 we will see the first summer with an extent of less than 1 million km^2.

The Slow Transition: The Central Arctic

For the Arctic Ocean to become seasonally sea ice free the Central Arctic region must become sea ice free. What is happening in PIOMAS in the Central Arctic, and what is likely to happen in future?

The Slow Transition: The BCE Region

The BCE region is the region covered by the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and the East Siberian Sea. For there to be a virtually ice free Arctic any September soon, the BCE region must melt out early in the season. This post is the penultimate post in my argument that we face a slow transition of the Arctic sea ice, after which I will wrap up the argument with a summary, before moving on to watch this season.

Coincidentally, as others including Neven have noted, Beaufort is very interesting right now, this winter's export of multi year ice makes me suspect it will stall, but an early start in Beaufort is promising for a more exciting season than the last two years. Here's hoping...

Is Arctic Sea Ice Like a Cup or a Ball?

As posted at Neven's blog, Wagner and Eisenman have recently published a paper building on an active area of research into whether the loss of sea ice will be linear or non linear. Thanks to Neven for bringing my attention to this paper and to HotWhopper for the link to a pre-print of Wagner & Eisenman. Although HotWhopper almost negates the provision of the actual paper by giving a guided tour of some comments at Dumbass Central. ;)

The Slow Transition: The Mono-modal Spike.

In my previous post I looked at the implications of winter thickening for the question of whether Arctic Sea Ice faces a rapid crash or a slow transition to a seasonally sea ice free state. There is another aspect of the PIOMAS data which throws light on this, and which shows something I have commented on in recent winter commentaries.

The Slow Transition: The Thickness Growth Feedback

PIOMAS data is often used in statistical extrapolation to support claims of an imminent crash of summer sea ice. However Zhang 2010 ("Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability" PDF) uses the very same model in a future projection and finds no such crash. What is going on? Which approach and conclusions are to be trusted?

The simplest model of sea ice growth

This post is acting as an appendix for a blog post I'm writing at the moment. In this post I describe a very simple physical model of sea ice growth and the conversion to a Freezing Degree Days format.

The Slow Transition: Arctic Ocean Energy Gain.

The decline in sea ice volume can reasonably be viewed as a process of net energy gain in the Arctic Ocean's ice/ocean system. How can it be possible for the rate of volume loss to reduce, against the trend of past energy gain?

The Slow Transition: Trendsetters.

Statistical extrapolation of volume loss has been used to make the claim that the Arctic sea ice faces a rapid decline to a state of summer open water within a few years, or at least this decade. Is this technique likely to give expectations that will be disappointed?

The Slow Transition

I've been busy with the day job, which has given me time to ponder something I've hinted at before but am now firmly behind. This year isn't a major factor, due to my increased workload in the day job I've had time away from this subject doing something else (often repetitive and boring admin) that has let my subconscious work on the issue - the issue being the long term outlook for Arctic sea ice. Here is what I am now 90% convinced of, having entertained the scenario as a possibility over the last year or so.