May 2016 Status

The data is now in, so here's a look at May and prospects for the coming summer.

Will Beaufort Stall?

In the Sea Ice Prediction Network releases this year is a report from Haas et al (PDF). In which they note that elements of the evidence suggest that "that the MYI in the region has the same or slightly smaller chances of survival in the coming summer than it had in 2015." However they do point out that it is more fragmented than in 2015.

This raises a question I have pondered, brought about by the detailed behaviour of melt in Beaufort. I expect near open water condition by September, but I wonder if there will be a stall in extent losses in Beaufort on the way to that state.

Where is the low extent coming from?

Using Cryosphere Today regions, where is the low extent at present coming from?

How did Beaufort get in this state?

In comments on an earlier post Iceman raised the question of how Beaufort got in the state it is in. As I wasn't immediately able to answer it off the top of my head I thought I had better look into it.

I'll start with a recap, then go on to examine how Beaufort ended up in such a fragile state.

Beaufort Starts Early

The 2016 sea ice melt season in the Arctic has started, Beaufort starts early this year, but does this mean it is starting as it means to continue?