How goes the Arctic Night?

Well, there's been more UK flooding, this time in Scotland, however I'm not going to get into the habit of covering every flood event, I've said all I can say at present in my my previous post. For this post I want to take a quick look at how the cold of the winter's 'Arctic night' is proceeding.

UK Rainfall: Loading the Dice

Using UK annual precipitation, the probability of a very wet year has increased, from 1/6 before 1990 to 3/6 after 1990.

In simple terms:

Before 1990 a very wet year had the same probability as that for rolling one dice for the number you picked, after 1990 three sides have the number you pick.

Anthropogenic Climate Change and the flooding in the North of England

I cannot really add much more than my recent comments on the Cumbria floods of early December, denying a role for AGW really isn't sound as I explain in that post. However it is an issue worthy of some comment.

2015 Record Temperature Smash

In October I posted the results of calculations that show that 2015 is very likely to be a new record warm year. That was based on data to September, now I have data to November and 2015 will be a new record likely by a massive margin.

COP21

In Paris the Great and Good have met and decided that it would be a good idea to keep AGW to below 1.5 to 2 degC. We'll see how that pans out, any effect will be seen in the coming decades in the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2, which is currently running at about 2ppm/yr.

Whilst the COP21 talks were ongoing, what seems to me to be a more important item of news (in terms of dealing with AGW) has been announced. Engineers and scientists in Germany reported what seems to me (as an outsider) to be a potentially exciting development in fusion power.

Anthropogenic Climate Change and the flooding in Cumbria

Cumbria in North West England has been hit by severe floods as a month's worth of rain falls in one week, the floods are as severe as the floods in 2009, which at the time were claimed to be a 1 in 1000 year event.

Has Anthropogenic (human driven) Climate Change got anything to do with this?

PDFs and Buses

The problem with what I've been doing in place of sea ice over much of this autumn is that I can't blog on it. You don't give away ways of doing things that you intend to make money out of, it's bad business. Then I was waiting at the bus stop over the weekend and it occurred to me that I often talk about probability distributions, but haven't explained what they are.