tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post6819402701311767669..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: PIOMAS April 2016Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-68821317164153566202016-05-30T01:12:46.187-07:002016-05-30T01:12:46.187-07:00The last graph shows potential long term effect af...The last graph shows potential long term effect after 2007. Granted there are only a few years of data after it but either we're talking about the serious business of soothsaying or we aren't....<br /><br />I wonder if the April thickness maps show the same feature of yellow dividing the thick muti year sea ice at the back of the CAA/Greenland as it does for 2011 and 2012?<br /><br />I might check 1998 aswell as everyone says it did give us long term problems with the days of ol' gone forever.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02677524462872451841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-56000850972329868122016-05-14T22:49:19.258-07:002016-05-14T22:49:19.258-07:00Chris ,
Thanks for the second file. I've done...Chris , <br />Thanks for the second file. I've done some preliminary work on my predictions for the year, using the IJIS data, and nothing looks good. <br /><br />My assessment suggests extent will stay at record low levels until at least mid July. By that time I expect the effect of insolation on the additional open water will be having a profound effect. <br /><br />In the short term we should see strong melt for the rest of the month with a sub 10M km^2 June 1st a distinct possibility. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00009729359611511868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-23761973510714985092016-05-10T13:24:27.200-07:002016-05-10T13:24:27.200-07:00Dreessen,
Why not sit back and let events adjudic...Dreessen,<br /><br />Why not sit back and let events adjudicate.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-81417756104073816012016-05-10T13:23:22.283-07:002016-05-10T13:23:22.283-07:00David,
Hopefully this link will work.
https://dri...David,<br /><br />Hopefully this link will work.<br />https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3bzlyYmNBS3FZSW8/view?usp=sharingChris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-85983358226294072052016-05-10T07:19:06.394-07:002016-05-10T07:19:06.394-07:00If there's any evidence as to why I think some...If there's any evidence as to why I think some people on the sea ice blog are misguided, this would be it: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/beaufort-under-relentless-high-pressure.html#commentsDreessennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-42584587346771331742016-05-10T02:09:12.317-07:002016-05-10T02:09:12.317-07:00Hi David,
I may not get the chance tonight, looks...Hi David,<br /><br />I may not get the chance tonight, looks like I'll be here at work until after 7. But I will do so either tonight or tomorrow night.<br /><br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-29088199334278044312016-05-10T01:55:03.042-07:002016-05-10T01:55:03.042-07:00Thanks Chris, I had a look at the gice data but it...Thanks Chris, I had a look at the gice data but it can't be translated back into the grid box effective data which is the basis of my estimate. <br /><br />If you can recalculate it I would appreciate it. Particularly if you can give me a link to a summary. Id prefer to have the actually summary numbers rather than a graph. But im only interested in the Arctic wide data.since 2010 if that makes it easier. <br /><br />ie:<br /><br />Thickness (10cm) (20cm) (30cm) ...<br />2010 (Vol) (vol) (vol) ...<br />2011 (Vol) (vol) (vol) ...<br />...<br />2016 (Vol) (vol) (vol) ...<br /><br />Great if you can provide it. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00009729359611511868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-75179300333232165232016-05-09T08:35:29.749-07:002016-05-09T08:35:29.749-07:00Dreessen,
It's at the end of the post, 4.0 to...Dreessen,<br /><br />It's at the end of the post, 4.0 to 5.3 million kmsq. If there is strong Arctic Dipole activity early in the summer the minimum will probably be below that.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-40644836720449054712016-05-09T07:54:52.614-07:002016-05-09T07:54:52.614-07:00Chris, did you make a prediction? I'm going wi...Chris, did you make a prediction? I'm going with 4.1 km2. I'm a bit skeptical about a record low just yet.Dreessennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-82986138916140386352016-05-08T13:24:33.005-07:002016-05-08T13:24:33.005-07:00David,
I assume you want this for your SIPN predi...David,<br /><br />I assume you want this for your SIPN prediction?<br /><br />Here is Gice as a csv file.<br />https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3a2pkTmlDbzgwbk0/view?usp=sharing<br />Day 121, Arctic Ocean.<br /><br />In previous years I may have used a calculation based on grid box effective thickness. I've discontinued this in favour of gice but can recalculate if you need it.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-33373822794128310622016-05-08T03:13:56.409-07:002016-05-08T03:13:56.409-07:00Chris,
Is it possible for you to provide the graph...Chris,<br />Is it possible for you to provide the graphs you presented in previous years which showed the volume of ice at various thicknesses across the arctic. <br /><br />For comparison purposes these are useful, and by limiting data to the past few years they are easier to read. <br /><br />The graphs shown clearly suggest a dramatic season. If we have to endure it we should learn what we can from it. Combinined with the remarkable heat over the last six months the low thickness offers little hope for avoiding a record low. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00009729359611511868noreply@blogger.com