tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post4461876638371123502..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: 2013 PIOMAS Volume Minimum ProjectionChris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-52354465860036622632013-05-20T22:42:15.781-07:002013-05-20T22:42:15.781-07:00I get you now,
There was also the thinner ice in ...I get you now,<br /><br />There was also the thinner ice in Barents/Kara.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-71610361682507779252013-05-20T17:32:19.547-07:002013-05-20T17:32:19.547-07:00Chris,
I'm actually referring to the areas in...Chris,<br /><br />I'm actually referring to the areas in Beaufort/Chukchi/E siberian/Laptev that had already opened <b> before </b> the big storm hit because of very thin ice in March/April. Since the ice cannot thin more than its starting thickness, those areas had 2012 thinning suppressed. Subtracting the <i> suppressed </i> 2012 thinning from the March/April 2013 thickness will underestimate open water formation. Nightvidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03320916322586904305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-8561595800018913132013-05-20T17:30:28.423-07:002013-05-20T17:30:28.423-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Nightvidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03320916322586904305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-7971844540376919892013-05-20T10:16:49.408-07:002013-05-20T10:16:49.408-07:00Nightvid,
Are you referring to the large swathe o...Nightvid,<br /><br />Are you referring to the large swathe of persistent low concentration ice that formed in Chukchi/East Siberian from July, and was decimated by the Arctic Cyclone of early August? This is one of the reasons why I think the August melt profile of 2012 wouldn't beat last year when applied to this year's March thickness profile. I'll have more to say about this in an upcoming post. But suffice to say for now; I think this retarded melt was due to a tongue of MYI that had pushed into the region.<br /><br />The last three posts (including this one) are part of a series leading to a conclusion.<br /><br />I agree about less ice this year's minimum in all measures, it's what I am expecting.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-58598657382641122032013-05-19T07:17:18.271-07:002013-05-19T07:17:18.271-07:00Keep in mind, the thinning in 2012 was in large ar...Keep in mind, the thinning in 2012 was in large areas aborted when the thickness got down to zero. Therefore, you can't reasonably equate actual thinning with 'thinning potential', as areas that were open water in September had a thinning potential >= the actual thinning but otherwise the 'excess' is unobservable.<br /><br />It's not clear to me exactly how one could attempt to account for this, although I suppose a crude first-order-correction could be had by simply thinning each pixel only until the point in the season at which it became open water in 2012, then continuing to thin based on another year (e.g. 2011) until mid-September or whenever thickness reaches zero, whichever comes first.<br /><br />Although a more-or-less WAG, I suspect this would produce a projection of less ice in Sept. 2013 than in Sept. 2012 on all three measures (extent, area, volume). Nightvidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03320916322586904305noreply@blogger.com