tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post3692665458211684373..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: How Low Can it Go?Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-16481367120809516842012-08-22T11:17:58.515-07:002012-08-22T11:17:58.515-07:00I should have added - OWFE with thinning ice could...I should have added - OWFE with thinning ice could imply far higher area/extent loss rates than we've seen in the record.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-4930555372463520712012-08-22T11:16:39.088-07:002012-08-22T11:16:39.088-07:00Hello again Kevin,
That the ice keeps getting thi...Hello again Kevin,<br /><br />That the ice keeps getting thinner is something I have in mind. I'm thinking about open water formation efficiency in terms of typical ice thinning through the season and the thickness implications of volume loss. This could present something of a shortcut to simply looking at earlier progression of melt in the season.<br /><br />But before I get onto that I'm looking at the events of early 2010. Expect a detailed post on that by when the next PIOMAS figures are out.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-64640046394167617902012-08-22T10:42:42.663-07:002012-08-22T10:42:42.663-07:00Chris - nothing wrong with your logic. Perhaps th...Chris - nothing wrong with your logic. Perhaps the only caveat is that the ice keeps getting thinner. While in previous years it always stalled under these conditions, there was also thicker ice in the fortress.<br /><br />It's really rather amazing to consider that we have decades of observations and data where 1 meter resolution was sufficient - now we need measurements in cm to distinguish 'old' ice from new ice.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-16694981065629461542012-08-20T22:46:13.569-07:002012-08-20T22:46:13.569-07:00Sooner drops below 3M would be a necessary conditi...Sooner drops below 3M would be a necessary condition. Above 85 deg N is around 1M kmsq in area. I'll be declaring 'virtually sea ice free' once we start having summers below 1M kmsq. That's as good as sea ice free. <br /><br />Maslowski notes in his extrapolations that a residual of ice will probably remain at the end of the season.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-65871823290700614102012-08-20T15:00:53.279-07:002012-08-20T15:00:53.279-07:00The "fat arse" conjecture!! If that is t...The "fat arse" conjecture!! If that is the case, then we should see sooner and sooner drops below 3M, and later and later refreezes, until the volume above 85degrees is low enough for an area/extent crash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com