tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post3066173805347049407..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: Catch-22- The Commitment Catch.Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-88400626390777235462011-11-14T09:56:27.044-08:002011-11-14T09:56:27.044-08:00Last stuff I read in the Peak Oil field was a proj...Last stuff I read in the Peak Oil field was a projection from IEA - they had OECD nations with a static to falling oil demand and increasing demand from the Far East (Chindia etc).<br /><br />The whole problem about Peak Oil is actually concerned with rates of supply. Not so much running out - which won't happen for many many decades. Indeed running out may not happen at all as the last reserves may prove too difficult/costly to get.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-66815719051432804932011-11-12T10:40:13.492-08:002011-11-12T10:40:13.492-08:00"What: "Don't stop me now?"
&#..."What: "Don't stop me now?"<br /><br />'We are the Champions' - or it could be 'Old Fashioned Lover Boy' ;-)<br /><br />What you describe with oil production is pretty much the symptoms of Peak Oil, and there is some evidence that we are there now. With increasing energy demand it is going to be very difficult for production, even with Tar Sands, opening in the Arctics etc, to keep apace, and these will be more expensive to extract than current sources in any case.<br />IMO now is the time to be investing in renewables, cobalt and fission reactors, and even gas in the shorter term.Lazarushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14139033650731770470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-87032415372391470152011-11-12T06:45:41.834-08:002011-11-12T06:45:41.834-08:00What: "Don't stop me now?" ;)
I had...What: "Don't stop me now?" ;)<br /><br />I had doubts about the Panorama programme. IIRC the UK became a net gas importer sometime in the previous decade (2006) since then the gas price has gone up. Likewise with Oil, the UK's production of oil peaked in aound 2000 (1998?). Globally oil production has been on a plateau since 2005 (+/-4%) with (by my calculation) some 25% of global production by nation decreasing as the oil price has increased - contrary to market theory - as price goes up so should production. Increased oil prices are forcing those users who can to switch to natural gas another bias towards increaing gas price - a major factor in electricity generation. These factors were germane to the programme's subject yet weren't mentioned; which made me think the programme was sloppily researched.<br /><br />On the subject of sloppy research I'm reminded of the recent programme on cold winters. This concentrated solely on the solar-UV link and failed to mention the equally plausible link to Arctic sea-ice. Overall another disappointing programme.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-56120339318290908272011-11-11T15:26:37.972-08:002011-11-11T15:26:37.972-08:00Yes I did see Panorama and I'm pretty much wit...Yes I did see Panorama and I'm pretty much with Damian Carrington on this.<br /><br />To interview people suffering from fuel poverty and then have images of wind turbines and being told how expensive they are makes a clear implication of cause and effect but the reality is subsidies have not increased recently and look set to go down. These people are in fuel poverty because of increases in wholesale fuel prices and profit margins from the power companies. <br /><br />The programs take on an apparent political gaff about singing up to having 15% of all fuels, not just electric, coming from renewables was interesting but since we are no where near to having 15% of anything, irrelevant.<br /><br />Not enough emphasis was made of the fact that lack of investment (and policy to encourage it) will lead to future increases in whatever energy mix we have. And as I recall nothing was said at all about price parity which will happen for most mainstream renewables within a generation.<br /><br />Put simply, fossil fuels will continue to increase in future, no one really expect fuel to be under £1 a litre ever again, and renewables, including wind, will continue to get cheaper as technology improvements and economies of scale always does this. Soon conventional generation will be as expensive as some alternatives, even becoming more expensive. So I know which is the most logical to invest in for the long term.<br /><br />The strange thing is one of the oft used denier arguments is that we will be smart enough to invent our way out of any future crisis but most fail to see that we already have. Even if they insist that they had some different in mind to alternative methods of generating energy, short of a miracle, it will still cost to develop and implement whatever they are holding out for.<br /><br />I like the Youtube video - My missus already knows that is what I want played at my funeral along with a certain Queen song.Lazarushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14139033650731770470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-13286888668362695652011-11-09T11:08:00.627-08:002011-11-09T11:08:00.627-08:00Hi Lazarus,
Don't know if you caught it but P...Hi Lazarus,<br /><br />Don't know if you caught it but Panorama's Monday edition will add to the sentiment in the UK against doing anything about AGW. It was claiming that increases in electricity prices are due to measures against AGW. The usual environmental groups and the Grauniad are kicking off about it - the subject doesn't interest me enough to dig around and try to find out. As I've cut my electric use back to the minimum and don't drive the cost of electricity and (particularly petrol) don't concern me too much - my boss has stopped moaning to me about how much it costs him to commute as I just rib him about it. ;)<br /><br />I find black humour in the situation, particularly in the way that despite the evidence people choose to resort to fantasy and denial to avoid reality, instead of doing something. Humanity reminds me more and more of the Golgafrinchams from 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy'.<br /><br />In the end it's a matter of doing what you can - what the rest of the world does is out of your power. So there's no point in getting too stressed about it. <br /><br />For myself - when I find things in life get too much I just watch this:<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&v=WlBiLNN1NhQ<br />Bernie, I told them, you'll never make your money back...Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-30618720448572291352011-11-08T13:55:29.749-08:002011-11-08T13:55:29.749-08:00Catch 22, a brilliant and funny book full of black...Catch 22, a brilliant and funny book full of black humour that I read many years ago and has left a lasting impression, and where I believe the original phase comes from.<br /><br />Set in the world of US bomber pilots in WW2, Catch 22, if I recall correctly,was the simple fact that to fly dangerous missions meant you must be mad, but to ask to get out of them because of madness would prove you were sane enough to continue flying them - a no win situation like you describe.<br /><br />Unfortunately with growing despair I feel that the climate argument is being lost politically, even if it is scientifically sound. You may very well be right that action will only be taken when most damage is unavoidable. A situation I do find black but humourless.Lazarushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14139033650731770470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-65822731554209833382011-11-08T10:37:58.761-08:002011-11-08T10:37:58.761-08:00Yes, feel free Kevin.Yes, feel free Kevin.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-10737425907490183682011-11-07T18:49:54.854-08:002011-11-07T18:49:54.854-08:00Chris, nice post. May I repost this in it's e...Chris, nice post. May I repost this in it's entirety over at DailyKos (with links back here and attribution)?Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.com