Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Peak Selfie

OK, I'm not deluded, I know 'selfies' are here to stay and numbers taken and shared on the 'net will increase, but nobody will ever beat this one, in that way the craze has peaked.

Anyway, it's a mindbogglingly great photo.

Full size image here, for you to save.


Esop said...

Chris, have you seen a season forecast from Cohen? With Sibearian snow cover up 50% vs average, I would assume that he forecasts negative NAO/AO and a ''denier friendly'' winter.
However, after we had the first warm and dry summer in Nortwestern Europe (in particular, Norway) since approx. 2007, my own season forecast was for a much milder winter type, more like pre 09/10 type, with some cold blasts, but much more frequent south/west type wind direction. I predicted a mild October, and we got that as well, unlike the past 4 or 5 Octobers. We will likely see some short cold blasts in early December, milder weather before and during Christmas, then ice cold around New Years (as usual), then very mild conditions right after. What happens from then on is the big question, but my prediction is a much milder weather type than what we have seen since 2010.
Big question is what the more positive NAO/AO will do to the Arctic sea ice.

Chris Reynolds said...

Hi Esop,

I've not been in touch with Dr Cohen recently, but when he has given me his forecast he's asked me not to discuss publicly.

As a side effect of some recent work I'm doing I may be in a position to look at a snow advance index following Cohen's work, but I've been too busy to look at it.

With regards the AO and sea ice, the only paper I know is Rigor et al 2000, "On the Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation" it's been years since I read it, and on casual scanning of it just now I wonder if the findings will have changed with the changed state of the ice - in short I don't know. If you Google the title of that paper you'll find a summary page.

Good luck with the forecast. I'll be posting on a regional breakdown of the PIOMAS data over the weekend. Links to the data are here.