tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post7316759244840481881..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: Sea Ice Prediction June 2014Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-9697907780166811092014-06-25T11:52:48.949-07:002014-06-25T11:52:48.949-07:00Thanks Steve,
If you come back here and read this...Thanks Steve,<br /><br />If you come back here and read this, could you possibly email me the papers? TIA - chris886222 at btinternet.com<br /><br />I didn't get the impression Screen was dismissive, I just thought he didn't think the Francis evidence was strong.<br /><br />Bruce,<br /><br />I'm going to be sticking with 20 June for my CT Area prediction, and that will be high...<br /><br />Writing a post at present.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-46572134946136632882014-06-23T17:36:54.356-07:002014-06-23T17:36:54.356-07:00The melt is hard to predict. Aside from being very...The melt is hard to predict. Aside from being very conditioned on the weather, especially at the end of the season, every year there is more heat in the oceans, the sun melts the (former) permafrost and the arctic rivers flood warm water into the ocean, and the CO2 and methane increase, etc. Eventually the ice just won't hold up to anything. It'll be thin at the start of the season and it'll be gone no matter what the weather does.<br /><br />So picking low is smart because you're going with the trend. Picking high is just a crapshoot.<br /><br />BruceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-24251495510795649252014-06-23T17:21:12.150-07:002014-06-23T17:21:12.150-07:00Chris, you may have noticed that James Screen has ...Chris, you may have noticed that James Screen has two new pubs in Nature Climate Change in the last week or so. I've obtained copies from him and will plow through. He still finds no amplitude trend, but does seem to have fallen in line re the blocking trend (although possibly I was mistaken in thinking he wasn't). I do wonder if he may be missing some things due to an insufficiently fine-grained analysis (e.g. his selection of 500 hPa and geographic divisions), but of course there will be more to come from him (and others).Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-43405762334395063982014-06-23T12:13:59.448-07:002014-06-23T12:13:59.448-07:00Bruce,
Forgot to add - I agree 2014 is not follow...Bruce,<br /><br />Forgot to add - I agree 2014 is not following 2013 in the atmosphere, the ice is unlikely to.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-70315042524634787992014-06-23T12:13:55.730-07:002014-06-23T12:13:55.730-07:00Bruce,
Forgot to add - I agree 2014 is not follow...Bruce,<br /><br />Forgot to add - I agree 2014 is not following 2013 in the atmosphere, the ice is unlikely to.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-24049504606085650392014-06-23T12:08:42.207-07:002014-06-23T12:08:42.207-07:00I have to be careful of throwing stones as with my...I have to be careful of throwing stones as with my SIPN prediction being the fifth lowest I could idly be accused of biassing to the low, just as WUWT bias to the high. However, they've just had a straw poll, whereas I chose my method, did the numbers and that's where they came out. I should note that the low end of my prediction is set by hindcast behaviour in 2012, whereas the high end is set by most of the other 2007 to 2011 years - they tend high in the prediction range. The only bias my prediction betrays is as stated in my submission - that volume loss drives extent decline, and that the 2007 to 2012 average SLP pattern is what we can expect in most summers to come, including 2014.<br /><br />I suspect that the summer pattern has arrived, unlike last year, and that we'll see the high over the Arctic ocean dominate 2014 from now on.<br /><br />CT Area is showing large falls, and as it lags NSIDC extent by two days will for at least the next two days. This is playing havok with my prediction method for CT Area. It's gone from the central estimate exceeding 2013, to the upper bound excluding 2013 in just three days!Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-1894489657521712632014-06-22T08:32:40.414-07:002014-06-22T08:32:40.414-07:00Hi Chris,
Well, the uptick (or downtick, dependin...Hi Chris,<br /><br />Well, the uptick (or downtick, depending on your point of view) didn't take long. Once Hudson and Baffin melt out, it looks like Kara will go very quickly (it's very thin an fragmented). That huge polyna north of Sibera is growing and connecting up with smaller ones... Basically, unless the weather for the rest of the summer is unusually calm and cool, a repeat of 2013 isn't going to happen.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the geniuses at WUWT are predicting 6.1. I used to wonder how they could believe that being so completely wrong so many times about so many things was helping their cause. But then I realized: they're not denialists, they're really in denial. Actual, medically diagnosable denial wherein the subject refuses to accept objective reality now matter how much evidence they are presented. It's kind of sad when you think about it.<br /><br />BruceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-12442173213491602772014-06-21T09:48:05.312-07:002014-06-21T09:48:05.312-07:00Hi Fernando,
Sorry but I've not come across s...Hi Fernando,<br /><br />Sorry but I've not come across such predictions. River discharge temperatures should track changes in land warming, the Lena should affect the Siberian early season melt, the McKenzie should affect Beaufort. Discharge from the Ob affects Kara which tends to melt out early anyway, but it could assist in earlier melt. However trying to incorporate that into a prediction really needs physical modelling - not something I'm capable of engaging with.<br /><br />Good luck with your prediction.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-85800279010505919992014-06-21T03:17:42.028-07:002014-06-21T03:17:42.028-07:00My predicted range us 4,3 to 5,5. I used the "...My predicted range us 4,3 to 5,5. I used the "graph eyeball method" modulated by personal observation of the environment. I can refine the figure in a couple of months. <br /><br />Turning to a slightly different subject, I realize the ice cover is important, but does anybody report the river breakup times in Siberia and Canada? I ask because I would expect the river flows, the water temperature and salinity may impact the way the ice cover changes in future years (?). I have seen the Ob and Pechora during breakup and the amount of water they release must change ocean behavior?Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.com