tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post7217884734537945884..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: July Status Part 1: Cryosphere Today AreaChris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-32077090606350285552013-08-03T11:00:25.530-07:002013-08-03T11:00:25.530-07:00Nightvid,
I really don't think it's just ...Nightvid,<br /><br />I really don't think it's just clouds, although I'm not going to argue that CT Area could drop massively in the weeks to come.<br /><br />Temperatures over the pack are down, in some places dipping below freezing regularly for periods during the day. And as I've pointed out at the forum, <a href="http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,418.msg11401.html#msg11401" rel="nofollow">link</a>, there is a drop in MASIE trends around the time of the CT Area plateau(probably more like a ledge actually).<br /><br />But I have observed the effect of clouds, and you're right they do have an effect.<br /><br />I'm resigned to this being just another question I can't answer.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-31442698547953104032013-08-03T10:42:20.242-07:002013-08-03T10:42:20.242-07:00It's neither melt ponds draining/freezing nor ...It's neither melt ponds draining/freezing nor divergence. It's clouds. The past few days have been quite cloudy over much of the CAB, and the satellite sensor algorithms tend to over-estimate ice concentration in areas covered by overcast on that particular day.<br /><br />Looking at ECMWF , we will have low pressure over the CAB for another full week, which will probably cause continued overcast.<br /><br />I never thought I'd live to see a day when the clouds were so stubborn over the area and stay around for two full weeks with virtually no break at all. But here we are seeing it.<br /><br />When the clouds finally let up a bit, CT area is going to crash, big time, like you've never seen. Because overcast this long is also something you've never seen!Nightvidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03320916322586904305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-15288857285606312932013-08-01T23:02:08.620-07:002013-08-01T23:02:08.620-07:00Peter, I don't agree.
Average air temperature...Peter, I don't agree.<br /><br />Average air temperature at the following two buoys.<br /><br />2012G<br />pre 0.580119048<br />post -0.405806452<br /><br />2012 H<br />pre 0.771301775<br />post -0.471190476<br /><br />Pre is 17 to 23 July<br />Post is 24 to 30 July<br />To match periods on SLP plots above.<br /><br />If you look at the Cryosphere Today plotter the ice edge in Beaufort/Chukchi recedes until 24 July, when the recession largely stops. CT Area has quite a course grid that will miss the sort of detail seen in MODIS, divergence of leads can occur that does not affect CT Area.<br /><br />I agree that melt ponds are a factor, I don't agree they're the only one. Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-72306252150162794062013-08-01T16:01:37.285-07:002013-08-01T16:01:37.285-07:00I disagree that divergence is the answer - you'...I disagree that divergence is the answer - you'd expect that to affect extent but not area.<br /><br />I think the answer's melt ponds again - but not drainage thereof. Look at the oBuoy cameras, look at the temperatures in the Beaufort under the low. The ponds are freezing over again and are in some cases covered up with fresh snow.<br /><br />Look at the CT animation here and watch the way the deep purples have reappeared in the northern Beaufort and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.<br />http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html<br /><br />Storms that aren't strong enough to bring up warm water and melt the ice from below are a very powerful negative feedback. Temperatures are down, albedo is up, the melt season in that part of the basin is ending early.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12559721137290332762noreply@blogger.com