tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post5287247678520527925..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: Dr Jennifer Francis on Arctic weather impacts.Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-20831316594703308682013-06-10T22:50:02.035-07:002013-06-10T22:50:02.035-07:00To translate the above comment (using Google Trans...To translate the above comment (using Google Translate):<br /><br />"This is not a study, but a banal woman's nonsense. Since the jet streams are formed as a result of the superposition of pressure systems. It should be understood that all of the relevant pressure systems are formed and live as a result of the impact of short-term local changes in the gravitational field of the planet! Therefore, all the theories of global anthropogenic influence on the climate in principle wrong. The land itself is run by climate processes. And Jennifer, pass it the usual stupid woman that wants fame as other assessments of its allegations do not deserve."<br /><br />My response.<br /><br />Unevidenced, poorly reasoned nonsense.<br /><br />1) The Jet is influenced by surface conditions, it forms pressure systems.<br /> <br />2) You introduced the gravitational field. Nobody else has mentioned it.<br /><br />3) Anthropogenic change is real and ongoing.<br /><br />And on that final point I'll be marking all further posts by you as spam because this is a denialist free blog.<br /><br />Take it to WUWT.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-71641720654443028852013-06-10T12:21:44.263-07:002013-06-10T12:21:44.263-07:00Это не исследование, а банальный бабий бред. Поско...Это не исследование, а банальный бабий бред. Поскольку струйные течения формируются как результат суперпозиции барических систем. При этом надо понимать, что все значимые барические образования формируются и живут в результате воздействия краткосрочных локальных изменений гравитационного поля планеты!!! Поэтому все теории о глобальности антропогенного влиянии на климат в принципе ошибочны. Земля сама управляет климатическими процессами. А Дженифер передайте, что она обычная глупая баба, желающая известности, поскольку других оценок её измышления не заслуживают.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716057772025431769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-68893423915518606632012-03-07T12:54:03.858-08:002012-03-07T12:54:03.858-08:00Hello Jennifer, glad you popped by and enjoyed rea...Hello Jennifer, glad you popped by and enjoyed reading our amateur musings. I've enjoyed reading your papers. I'll be emailing you.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-70109833833128952482012-03-07T09:46:15.811-08:002012-03-07T09:46:15.811-08:00Hello Chris, Kevin, and all -- I've enjoyed re...Hello Chris, Kevin, and all -- I've enjoyed reading your comments on my presentation and related papers. I have a GRL paper coming out in a week or two. Send me an e-mail and I'll send you a pdf: francis@imcs.rutgers.eduJennifer Francishttp://marine.rutgers.edu/~francisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-8752709484808795052012-02-11T02:46:48.148-08:002012-02-11T02:46:48.148-08:00In due course I'll be doing some more posts on...In due course I'll be doing some more posts on the issue of the wider atmospheric impacts. But not immediately - it's not like there's any rush.<br /><br />PS - noticed you referenced one of my posts over at Barely Science. It'll be interesting to see if Goddard approves the reply to some of the comments there.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-11791386991551610042012-02-10T16:24:34.404-08:002012-02-10T16:24:34.404-08:00Chris - thank for the link to the Buddikova resear...Chris - thank for the link to the Buddikova research summary - I'd run across it before and forgotten about it. The Duffy thesis is *not* something I'll be exploring in the near future.<br /><br />I can only follow it in a general sense - and even at that I was having to look up way too many terms. I never got far enough to be stumped by the math :)Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-19850192086499049972012-02-09T12:09:06.242-08:002012-02-09T12:09:06.242-08:00Hello Lazarus,
I too suffer from blog-backlog.
I...Hello Lazarus,<br /><br />I too suffer from blog-backlog.<br /><br />I'm looking forward to seeing what Francis publishes on this.<br /><br />I'm not sure how much blocking has increased, I think you're hearing more because it's being talked about more. From the Hovmoeller diagrams in the Francis slide shows the changes are still small. There are trends but they're eas to miss in the noise of variability.<br /><br />I think we're only seeing the start of this, which is part of the fun - seeing what you can get right about impacts to come.<br /><br />PS - I'm going to watch the second part of Liz Bonin's BBC documentary about animal intelligence - catch it on iPlayer if you've missed it. (There I go dumping more things to watch on you)Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-73688866089847465782012-02-09T03:17:58.765-08:002012-02-09T03:17:58.765-08:00That for the link to the vid. I'm trying to ca...That for the link to the vid. I'm trying to catch up on so many blogs I have only just go to this.<br /><br />Jet Stream blocking seems more and more common. I hadn't heard about it until a few years back (2009?) when the UK had an unusually cold winter (the coldest since 1963 If I remember correctly) while the Arctic was positively balmy. <br /><br />Then the meteorologists were blaming blocking for diverting the Jet Stream and causing the cold snap. Since then I have seen it used to explain several 'global weirding' events.Lazarushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14139033650731770470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-34265208372322345302012-02-05T09:49:57.689-08:002012-02-05T09:49:57.689-08:00Kevin,
I've finally read the paper, thanks fo...Kevin,<br /><br />I've finally read the paper, thanks for recommending it to me.<br /><br />The first unrelated point is that they don't interpret the Graversen et al / Screen & Simmonds disagreement as I have been (which probably means I'm wrong). I've been working on the assumption that Graversen's paper showed that the influx of sub Arctic air was responsible for tropospheric warming, but Screen & Simmonds showed this not to be the case by deomonstrating the source of the warming was from the boundary layer (i.e. open ocean replacing sea-ice). However according to Jaiser et al Graversen did a second paper that showed the same result using a different dataset. I'll have to look at Screen & Simmonds again. The problem is that Graversen 2008b is probably paywalled as it's an on line supplemnet at Science.<br /><br />One thing that strikes me about Jaiser et al is that they use 1990-2000 as a period of high ice, 2000-2010 as a period of low ice. However the AO was +ve in the former period and neutral in the latter. So I can't help but wonder how much of Jaiser et al's results could be due to the different AO modes. On first reading I don't see this addressed.<br /><br />The paper as a whole stretched my knowledge. Whilst I know what baroclinic & barotropic mean in words, my understanding isn't good enough to translate that into a wider understanding. The translation of an initial (autumn) baroclinic (frontal type synoptic situation) into a subsequent (winter) barotropic (stable - non frontal synoptic) response is something I've read about before in connection with this matter. Just found the ref - 'The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the<br />Late Twenty-First Century' - Deser et al, 2009. <a href="http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/cdeser/Docs/deser.seaiceloss.jclim10.pdf" rel="nofollow">PDF</a> That's another case of models finding something that has later been observed. However whilst I understand the individual paragraphs of Jaiser et al, I still don't fully grasp the whole picture and it's details (hence implications).<br /><br />I'm going to read Jaiser et al again and if I can't work out my problem regarding the AO then I'll consider contacting Judah Cohen about it.<br /><br />If you're interested in pursuing this issue then I recommend: Dagmar Buddikova's "Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review" <a href="http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/docs/ArcticAND_Globe.pdf" rel="nofollow">PDF</a><br /><br />I could do with re-reading some of these papers. It's been years since I did a load of reading on the atmospheric implications os sea-ice loss.<br /><br />PS- while looking for information about Eady Waves I came across <a href="http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/52828/02144265.pdf?sequence=1" rel="nofollow">this paper</a>. Which is quite large. A glance over it shows the main problem I have in this field - the maths is rather daunting and until you understand the maths behind the principles, you don't properly grasp the basic principles.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-31588123725767863602012-02-02T09:46:33.095-08:002012-02-02T09:46:33.095-08:00Thanks Kevin,
I've not got around to reading ...Thanks Kevin,<br /><br />I've not got around to reading it but will do as soon as I've posted the posts on methane - that's why I've gone quiet recently.<br /><br />I still think Siberian snowcover remains a factor in cold winters, 2009/10 being an example that's supported strongly. I note that Cohen is a co-author on Jaiser et al.<br /><br />However until I've read the Jaiser paper properly I can't comment. Actually I'll print it off and see if I can read it on the bus tomorrow.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-61262726444247181972012-02-01T19:41:57.825-08:002012-02-01T19:41:57.825-08:00My favorite sentence from Jaiser et al:
As shown ...My favorite sentence from Jaiser et al:<br /><br /><i>As shown by Sempf et al. (2007), these interactions are the main drivers for seasonal and decadal-scale changes between positive and negative AO phases, <b>which can be considered as atmospheric flow regimes resulting from chaotic wandering of the trajectories in phase space on the ruins of merged attractors.</b></i><br /><br />... on the ruins of merged attractors...<br /><br />That sounds like a great paper all by itself :)Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-51744508521405738542012-02-01T19:32:50.368-08:002012-02-01T19:32:50.368-08:00A new paper: IMPACT OF SEA ICE COVER CHANGES ON TH...A new paper: <a href="http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/11595/pdf" rel="nofollow">IMPACT OF SEA ICE COVER CHANGES ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE</a> Jaiser et al, 2012, Tellus A<br /><br /><i>We showed that Arctic heating anomalies due to low sea ice concentrations in late summer (August/September) trigger changes in baroclinic systems in autumn because of an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that influences the structure of large-scale planetary waves in the following winter. The baroclinic structure of the direct response in autumn is linked to different patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere, which are related to the decrease in sea ice concentration. Decreased static stability and changed meridional temperature gradients induce an earlier onset of baroclinicity north of 75 N with greater amplitude.</i><br /><br />They do mention snow cover, but more as a secondary effect. This seems much more in line with Francis' reasoning.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-29098542077468138762012-01-28T15:04:19.843-08:002012-01-28T15:04:19.843-08:00"...any thoughts about the AD / jetstream lin..."...any thoughts about the AD / jetstream link?"<br /><br />No. :)<br /><br />I think this is why scientists use computer models. Computers don't forget. I've been breaking in a new laptop and haven't transferred pdfs of climate papers onto the new one. I read a paper now and wonder if it's familiar because I've read it before or if it just echoes similar research. It doesn't help that I've never been a note taker.<br /><br />I haven't been able to put all of the research together into one coherent set of bullet points. The closest I get is:<br />* Increased GHGs lead to global warming (and stratospheric cooling)<br />* These effects are amplified in the Arctic; as a result we see<br />* Arctic Sea-ice decreases <b> and </b> a smoothing of the latitudinal temperature gradient <br />* These in turn have direct and indirect effects on both regional and global weather (jetstream, Rossby Waves, AO, AD, snow cover, etc.)<br /><br />Throw in the chaotic nature of the system, numerous feedbacks, and the intermingling of different effects. What we're left with is a need for a global climate computer simulator :)<br /><br />Sorry, not much help. Just restating the obvious. The chicken or egg conundrum seems to be a regular feature of every piece of the climate system.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-17923792905799777322012-01-26T12:40:26.958-08:002012-01-26T12:40:26.958-08:00Thanks for that. It's been over a year since I...Thanks for that. It's been over a year since I read that paper and figure 4 is a detail I'd forgotten, figure 3 being the 'take home' message I remember.<br /><br />I wonder how much else I've forgotten from the papers I've read. :(<br /><br />It might be informative to try to compile the papers showing links between observed weather patterns and Arctic sea-ice loss. <br /><br />Have you any thoughts about the AD / jetstream link?Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-15956977740646112242012-01-25T16:29:44.661-08:002012-01-25T16:29:44.661-08:00Chris, did you read Winter Northern Hemisphere we...Chris, did you read <a href="http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_2009GL037274.pdf" rel="nofollow"> Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent</a> by Francis et al, 2009?<br /><br />This paragraph deals a bit with precipitation:<br /><br /><i>Of particular interest is the influence of summer seaice variability and loss on northern hemisphere precipitation, as future changes in freshwater resources are a vital concern in many regions. Precipitation data are noisy by nature and tend to be less reliable, particularly in mountainous areas and high latitudes where much of it falls as snow. A regression of actual summer sea ice extent with precipitation data yields a noisy yet significant tendency for increased precipitation over much of the region north of approximately 40 N. More revealing and illustrative is the composited difference in winter-mean<br />precipitation after summers when ice extent was less than and greater than 1 standard deviation from the 1979 – 2006 mean. A coherent area of negative anomalies is evident over a large region of the northeast Atlantic Ocean extending into northern Europe as well as over much of the U.S. and Alaska.</i>Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.com