tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post1750184803237199000..comments2023-06-21T00:39:34.443-07:00Comments on Dosbat: Cold Winters: The Snow Advance Index.Chris Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-42962804561423054652012-01-17T12:15:19.619-08:002012-01-17T12:15:19.619-08:00Esop,
Corbyn made a complete hash of last year, I...Esop,<br /><br />Corbyn made a complete hash of last year, I've got his forecast somwehere, he blathered on about a severe winter for the UK, after December it wasn't overall. He seems to have been rather reticent this year.<br /><br />It may seem odd but the lack of warming is clear in the data. Cohen et al (unpublished), as discussed in the post following this one, uses Hadley/CRU data. I've used GISS in my reply to OJ on that thread, see <a href="http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2011/12/cold-winters-arctic-connection.html?showComment=1325966875424#c2271914348797089557" rel="nofollow">here</a>. It may seem odd but the data doesn't lie, there is indeed a regional, seasonal, lack of warming. <br /><br />Bear in mind this is regional and seasonal. The warming continues globally on an annual basis (e.g. Foster & Rahmstorf).Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-24397515662002940722012-01-17T01:41:15.898-08:002012-01-17T01:41:15.898-08:00Thanks Chris.
That is very interesting. That mean...Thanks Chris. <br />That is very interesting. That means that both Cohens and the MET office forecasts are spot on so far. (Can't say the same for Piers Corbyns forecast... he lucked out last year and was celebrated as a hero by the MSM, but he gets off easy (unlike the MET) when he is wrong (ie.most of the time)). Double standards by the MSM as usual.<br /><br />What I find curious are Cohens claim of overall cooling since 1988. In most of Scandinavia and large parts of the US the exact opposite is the case, except for winters 09/10 and 10/11.Esopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-80924398456253109152012-01-16T17:43:42.703-08:002012-01-16T17:43:42.703-08:00Chris, I see Cohen's research has hit Science...Chris, I see Cohen's research has hit <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193430.htm" rel="nofollow">Science Daily</a>. I read the following quote and immediately realized, 'Damn, I'm an idiot.'<br /><br /><i>"In my mind there is no doubt that the globe is getting warmer and this will favour warmer temperatures in all seasons and in all locations; however, I do think that the increasing trend in snow cover has led to regional cooling as discussed in the paper and I see no reason why this won't continue into the near future. Also if it continues to get much warmer in the fall, precipitation that currently falls as snow will fall as rain instead, eliminating the winter cooling."</i><br /><br />It never dawned on me that the snow could turn to rain. Doh!<br /><br />:)Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-60596188833269801632012-01-16T12:09:22.108-08:002012-01-16T12:09:22.108-08:00Hi Esop,
Yes there was a prediction, I got it by ...Hi Esop,<br /><br />Yes there was a prediction, I got it by email late November (28/11/11). I've been asked not to give all the details, however I am OK to confirm that the prediction was for a warm winter for the UK and East Coast US.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-19142998773815847632012-01-16T03:43:50.668-08:002012-01-16T03:43:50.668-08:00Did Cohen make a prediction for this winter? AO an...Did Cohen make a prediction for this winter? AO and NAO have been strongly positive so far, with temperatures way above average for Northern Europe and the US Eastcoast.Esopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-21680860761273361832011-12-30T10:15:22.913-08:002011-12-30T10:15:22.913-08:00Hi Kevin,
Sorry for not getting back to you. My p...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />Sorry for not getting back to you. My phone and internet went down and the engineers have only just sorted the problem out. Now I have a stinking cold which is really affecting my concentration. I'm having a jinxed Xmas period.<br /><br />I wrote the following reply but didn't get round to posting it.<br /><br />Thanks for putting me onto the Toyoda paper about Model/Data assimilation and Arctic Sea-Ice. Sorry I've not replied sooner, my internet and phone line have been out of action. <br /><br />The paper shows that after initialisation with observations of sea-ice extent the improvement in skill persists for up to four years, and that enhanced heat storage plays a role in this improvement, i.e. the un-initialised model loses too much heat. This seems relevant to Tietsche et al, which I've used in a strand of reasoning to support my view that the Arctic won't be sea-ice free in summer this decade. Tietsche et al didn't use MIROC (they used ECHAM), as an aside MIROC was one of the models chosen by Wang and Overland as giving a good reproduction of the seasonal cycle - therefore a candidate to produce projections of future changes, in that study the MIROC model gives an ice-free summer in 2075. <br /><br />However with regards Tietsche et al and the possibility of tipping points - I'm having doubts about my conservative stance on a rapid transition because of a recent paper I've been grapling with. More in a post to follow.<br /><br />What also interests me is that Toyoda et al find a vestigial effect similar to the Arctic dipole, although they don't find the dipole anomaly to be a robust feature. They find a significant impact of ice-albedo because their sea-ice is specified. But they don't find cloud feedback, probably because the time window considered (1990s) is too short.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-82639757247788960722011-12-23T05:52:19.659-08:002011-12-23T05:52:19.659-08:00Chris, I know the overwhelmed feeling of too much ...Chris, I know the overwhelmed feeling of too much work (of the wage paying kind) and too much to read. And just to make the unread pile a little larger I just discovered SOLA - <a href="http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/sola/7/0/_contents" rel="nofollow">Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere</a><br /><br />I quickly read <b><i>Impact of the Assimilation of Sea Ice Concentration Data on an Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Simulation of the Arctic Ocean Climate</i></b> and it confirmed what I'd already believed - better modelling of sea ice leads to model results that better reflect reality. The paper basically says that accounting for Sea Ice Concentration greatly improves the results, but other feedbacks still need to be taken into account (modeled) to get realistic results. They point to the Beaufort Gyre and ice-cloud feedbacks as remaining significant deficiencies in the model.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-30612918884313224502011-12-21T11:35:46.526-08:002011-12-21T11:35:46.526-08:00Thanks Kevin I'll read that.
I did read the ...Thanks Kevin I'll read that. <br /><br />I did read the Cohen et al (2011) paper on the bus - not as big as I'd thought. It'll probably warrant a fresh post, but I'm working long days trying to clear work before the Xmas shutdown and I need a clear head to do this matter justice.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-70038136200180764452011-12-21T04:25:32.247-08:002011-12-21T04:25:32.247-08:00Chris, if you haven't read Jeff Masters' a...Chris, if you haven't read <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2003" rel="nofollow">Jeff Masters' article</a> on reduced May snow cover leading to changes in the jet stream, it points to some interesting research. Summer though, not winter :)Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-84365175665743134102011-12-20T12:01:55.372-08:002011-12-20T12:01:55.372-08:00When I wrote that post I didn't know, but now ...When I wrote that post I didn't know, but now I think you're thinking along the right lines. Last night Dr Cohen was good enough to let me know of a new paper that might interest me (Cohen et al 2011). It's the top paper on his publications page:<br />http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers.html<br /><br />Looks like it'll bear reading in tandem with Cohen et al 2009. To my regret I find that's been in my ever-expanding 'to be read' folder for a while.<br /><br />With regards Cohen et al 2011, I'll be reading it and suspect it'll be worth a post. I've only read the abstract and checked out the graphs so far. So what follows has a BIG caution.<br /><br />Check out figure 2. Follow it as a string of cause and effect. <br />A) Arctic Temperature increase - bit of feedback here as sea-ice loss is a large part of Arctic amplification.<br />B) September sea ice decline.<br />C) Increase in mean lower tropo moisture.<br />D) Increase in Oct Eurasian snow cover.<br />E) Decrease in DJF AO index - which leads to cooling pattern in late winter NH.<br /><br />I suspect I now know why Dr Cohen pointed me to that paper after reading this post. But that's a suspicion based on one graph, where I've not read the full report... And as Eli The Erudite Bunny says - RTFR! ;)<br /><br />Actually, as I've got this far, I'll try to fit Cohen et al into my bus-commute time for the remainder of this week. Anyway the paper's there if you want to check it out.Chris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1367053740188758246.post-23582514111800738962011-12-20T03:58:30.900-08:002011-12-20T03:58:30.900-08:00Chris, is there a linkage between low sea ice exte...Chris, is there a linkage between low sea ice extent and Siberian snow cover? If there is, it would explain both Screen and Cohen's results.<br /><br />Low SIE => Increased Siberian Snow cover => Colder UK winters.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.com